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BTC/USDT Analysis After Warsh’s Speech in Jackson Hole

Technical picture at the time of writing (August 30)

BTC/USDT is trading around $78,001, up +0.33% over 24 hours. Daily range: $77,508 – $78,336.

Indicators:

· EMA5: $78,186 / EMA10: $76,813 / EMA30: $71,485 short-term moving averages are above the price, indicating resistance around $78,200.
· BOLL(20,2): upper band $85,835, middle band $71,761, lower band $57,686 the price is in the upper half of the channel.
· MACD: DIF $3,887 above DEA $3,391, histogram positive (496.6) bullish momentum is holding, but its strength is declining.
· Volume: current 439.59 versus MA5 4.39K activity is low, which is typical for weekends.

Impact of Warsh’s speech (August 28)

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke in Jackson Hole with a hawkish message. PCE inflation stands at 3.7% year-on-year, and at 4.1% over the past six months. Warsh stated that the Fed “has work to do” to reach its 2% target. The probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 55–60%.

BTC reaction: the price fell from ~$80,000 to a low of ~$76,900, then recovered to $78,000. Nearly $488 million in long positions were liquidated. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%.

Outflows from BTC ETFs (August 28)

On the same day, spot BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of $201.8 million, ending a 9-day streak of inflows totaling $3.04 billion. This was the first outflow since August 17.

Forecast for next week

Pressure factors:

· The Fed’s hawkish signal and the rising probability of a rate hike continue to pressure risk assets.
· ETF outflows indicate weakening institutional demand in the short term.
· Technically, hidden bearish divergence is forming near the $80,000 resistance: the price is forming lower highs while RSI is recording higher values.

Support factors:

· Before the speech, BTC rose from $64,000 to $80,000 in a week on expectations of support from the Treasury.
· The medium-term structure remains bullish: EMA10 and EMA30 are significantly below the current price.
· RSI (14) on the daily chart has corrected from overbought territory to 60–65.

Expected scenario for the week of August 31 – September 6:

Base forecast: consolidation in the $76,500 – $79,500 range with elevated volatility at the beginning of the week. A retest of the $76,500–77,000 support remains possible. Sustained movement above $80,000 requires either a new positive macroeconomic signal or renewed ETF inflows. Nearest resistance is at $78,300 (EMA5) and $80,000 (psychological level). Support is at $77,500 (local low) and $76,400 (lower boundary of the short-term range).

Recommendation: wait for volume confirmation of the direction during the first trading days of the week. If low activity persists, sideways trading is likely.