#加密市场观察 Behind the Crypto Market Frenzy: Euphoria, Risks, and the Industry’s Real Transformation

This round of Bitcoin’s rapid rise has been simply attributed by many to the restart of a bull market, but looking beneath the surface of the price action, we can see two things happening simultaneously: on one hand, macro policies are driving funds into the market, while new technologies continue to be implemented; on the other hand, there is the reality of speculative traps, tightening regulation, and massive investor losses. The market has never been a one-sided celebration.

I. The Underlying Driver of the Rally: Not Just Money Printing, but a “Firefighting Operation” in the U.S. Treasury Market
Bitcoin has surged recently, gaining 25% in a week, with large numbers of short positions liquidated and the price briefly reaching $79k. The core force behind this is intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market, Securities Times. To address the problems of high U.S. debt and excessively high long-term Treasury yields, the U.S. Treasury is expanding its buybacks of long-term Treasuries and is even considering using nearly $950 billion from the government’s cash reservoir, the TGA account, to push down bond-market interest rates and release dollar liquidity into the market. Many industry leaders believe this operation is essentially a disguised injection of liquidity into the market, with Bitcoin likely to benefit first from the liquidity windfall, signaling that a new bull market has begun.
But several institutions have also issued a sober reminder: so far, only BTC and ETH are leading the rise. Among the top 100 altcoins, only one-third have outperformed Bitcoin, meaning a broad-based altcoin rally has not yet begun. Whether the rally can continue depends on whether ETF inflows can persist and whether U.S. Treasury policies will be reversed. Once ETFs shift from net inflows to outflows, Bitcoin could fall back into its previous $60,000-$70k trading range, and market sentiment would quickly reverse.
U.S. federal debt has already surpassed $40 trillion. BlackRock has also put forward the view that, compared with regulatory policy, the unsustainability of U.S. fiscal policy is Bitcoin’s greatest long-term support factor. More and more institutions are treating it as a tool for hedging fiscal risks. But it is important to distinguish between the two: this is a long-term rationale and does not mean prices will only rise in the short term. Volatility in this rally will be greater than before.

II. The Glamour and the Cost: The Other Side of Get-Rich-Quick Stories
As market enthusiasm surges, risk cases have also been exposed in concentrated fashion. Crypto projects associated with the Trump family were once frantically pursued by the market, but a consumer organization report estimated that such crypto businesses have caused investors at least $4.7 billion in losses since 2022. More than a million ordinary wallets purchased the TRUMP token, with most currently sitting on paper losses. The largest backer behind WLFI, a token project valued at more than $79k, was exposed as a Chinese person involved in legal cases and listed as a dishonest debtor, with multiple debt cases against them and involvement in an overseas money-laundering investigation, making the source of the massive funds highly questionable. This also serves as a reminder to the market: the financial backgrounds behind many extremely popular projects may not be clean. Regulators have not relaxed either. The United States has included digital assets in secondary sanctions against Iran and continues to crack down on the use of crypto channels to evade sanctions, having already seized nearly $1 billion in related crypto assets. Crypto is not a lawless zone, and cross-border-related businesses may face compliance risks at any time.

III. Look Beyond Crypto Price Action: The Industry Is Undergoing Genuine Fundamental Iteration
If we focus only on coin prices rising and falling, it is easy to overlook the evolution of the industry’s technological direction. Several key trends are quietly taking shape:
1. RWA real-world asset tokenization has reached a new all-time high
The scale of on-chain RWA assets excluding stablecoins has reached $44.9 billion, setting a record. The largest segment is tokenized U.S. Treasuries, followed by various yield strategies and credit funds. Put simply, this means bringing traditional financial assets such as government bonds and credit onto the blockchain. The founder of Uniswap has also proposed that, as RWA develops, on-chain AMM automated market making could challenge traditional financial market makers in the future, lowering the barriers and costs of financial transactions. This is not a short-term speculative concept, but a sector in which institutional capital is genuinely positioning itself.
2. AI + crypto: intelligent-agent finance, AiFi, explores a new model Coinb launches an AiFi intelligent-agent finance initiative. AI programs need to trade and make payments automatically 7×24 hours a day, but traditional banks cannot do this because of business hours and identity restrictions. Cryptocurrencies and stablecoins can provide AI agents with underlying payment and trading infrastructure, allowing AI to complete transfers and micropayments on its own. Supporting tools have now been launched to enable large language models to connect directly to on-chain operations. This is an entirely new experimental direction, though it also carries many unknown risks.
3. Public blockchains are maturing and beginning to “slim down,” but internal conflicts are becoming more pronounced
Solana is advancing an inflation reform proposal aimed at reducing token issuance and accelerating the transition to an era of low inflation. Staker returns are expected to nearly halve within two years, while on-chain token burning will also increase. The proposal is intended to improve the token’s fundamentals through deflation, but it has sparked major controversy within the community. Some developers warn that changes to fee rules will harm on-chain applications and undermine developer confidence. On-chain teams and founders are still engaged in an ongoing struggle, and the final effect will depend on the voting results; it is not simply a “positive catalyst.”

The current crypto market is an interplay of macro liquidity, institutional capital, new technologies, speculative trading, and regulatory battles. Intervention in the Treasury market has boosted prices through expectations of increased liquidity, while RWA and AiFi represent the industry’s long-term areas of exploration. At the same time, massive investor losses, questionable project funding, and the risks of cross-border sanctions are equally real.
The start of a bull market does not mean making money with your eyes closed. Liquidity can push the market higher, but it can also be withdrawn instantly; new technologies represent future possibilities, but large-scale mature implementation remains a long way off. For ordinary participants, beneath the market excitement, it is even more important to distinguish genuine industry iteration from short-term speculative stories.$BTC ‌