#原油行情 Forecast for the international crude oil market next week:

Looking ahead to next week, the international crude oil market is expected to maintain a highly volatile trading pattern, with the core variables determining price direction being substantive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the actual restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

On the geopolitical front, the market is currently in a critical period of negotiation between expectations and reality. On the one hand, rumors of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement have yet to receive formal confirmation from either side. Iran has made clear that whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen depends on whether the United States fulfills its commitments under the previous memorandum of understanding. Although Pakistan's mediation efforts continue to move forward, the fundamental differences between the United States and Iran over shipping routes and control of the strait have not been completely resolved. If the negotiations are obstructed or experience setbacks, the geopolitical risk premium previously priced out could quickly return. On the other hand, if the ceasefire agreement is ultimately implemented and the strait resumes free navigation, the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in oil prices will further recede.
Several institutions believe that oil prices can only enter a trend-based downward channel once navigation data for the strait shows substantive and sustained recovery.

In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the global crude oil market remains relatively tight. Approximately 5 million to 7 million barrels of daily oil supply in the Gulf region have been disrupted. Although OPEC+ has cumulatively raised its quotas from April through August, ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure amid the conflict in the Middle East, along with shipping risks, continue to severely constrain the actual recovery of crude oil supplies. Global inventories are at historically low levels, market buffer mechanisms are fragile, and the medium-term tightness is providing bottom support for oil prices. In addition, tight refined-product supplies and resilient prices continue to support crude oil prices.

Overall, the international crude oil market will most likely continue to trade in a broad range next week. The ongoing tug-of-war between expectations of geopolitical easing and the reality of tight fundamentals will continue to dominate price trends, and any substantive news regarding the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations or navigation through the strait could trigger sharp price volatility. Key factors to watch include official confirmation of the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the pace of improvement in actual navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz.

This article is compiled from publicly available market information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. $XTIUSD ‌