#StrategySharesBreak135ForFirstTimeIn12Weeks StrategySharesBreak135ForFirstTimeIn12Weeks

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, closed above 135 dollars today for the first time in 12 weeks. MSTR finished at 137.40, up 6.8 percent on the day. That is a 14.2 percent gain on the week and puts the stock back in a clear uptrend.

The last time MSTR traded above 135 was June 4. Since then it had been range bound between 108 and 134 as Bitcoin consolidated and the market waited for Q2 earnings and ETF flow data. Today’s break changes the technical picture and resets the narrative around Bitcoin treasury companies.

Why MSTR is moving now

Three drivers hit at once.

First, Bitcoin back above 81,000. BTC traded 81,650 today. Strategy holds 226,500 BTC on the balance sheet at an average cost of 36,800. That position is now worth 18.38 billion dollars. Every 1,000 dollar move in BTC adds 226.5 million to the mark to market value of Strategy’s holdings.

Second, ETF inflows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs had 328 million in net inflow yesterday and 1.12 billion over the last 5 days. That is creating a bid for all BTC proxies. Institutions that cannot buy BTC directly are buying MSTR.

Third, Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise. Strategy reported last week. Software revenue 142 million, up 11 percent year over year. Subscription billings up 24 percent. More importantly, management said they will continue to acquire BTC opportunistically and that they have 4.2 billion in available capital through ATM and convertible programs.

The market is pricing Strategy as leveraged Bitcoin with a software business attached.

Balance sheet update

As of August 27.

BTC holdings 226,500. Market value 18.38 billion.

Average cost 36,800. Unrealized gain 10.05 billion.

Cash and equivalents 210 million.

Convertible notes 3.1 billion. Next maturity 2027.

ATM capacity 2.1 billion remaining.

NAV per share based on BTC alone is 142.30. At 137.40, MSTR trades at a 3.4 percent discount to BTC NAV. Three months ago it traded at a 22 percent discount. The discount compression is why the stock is outperforming BTC.

BTC is up 14.2 percent this month. MSTR is up 27.4 percent. That is 1.93x beta.

Technical analysis

Support 126. That was prior resistance and the 50 day moving average.

Support 118. The 200 day moving average.

Resistance 142. The June high.

Resistance 148. Measured move from the 108 to 135 range.

Resistance 155. Psychological level.

Today’s close above 135 on 8.4 million shares, 2.3x average volume, confirms the breakout. RSI is 62. MACD crossed bullish last week. The next target is 142 to 145.

A weekly close above 138 would open the door to a retest of the all time high at 199 from March 2024.

What management said on the last call

CEO Phong Le said three things that matter.

One, the software business is stable and growing. They are not selling it. It funds part of the BTC acquisition.

Two, capital raising will be opportunistic. They will issue convertibles when the premium to NAV is low and use proceeds to buy BTC.

Three, they are exploring yield on BTC through lending to institutional counterparties with overcollateralization. No timeline, but it would add revenue.

The CFO said they have no forced sellers and no margin calls at any BTC price above 20,000.

ETF and institutional ownership

ETFs now own 8.4 percent of MSTR. Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street are the top 3 holders.

Last week, 12 new institutions filed 13F additions. Total institutional ownership is 71 percent.

The reason is simple. For many funds, buying MSTR is the only way to get BTC exposure. The ETF is new, but some mandates still cannot hold crypto directly.

Correlation and beta

90 day correlation to BTC is 0.84. That is high but not 1 to 1.

90 day beta to BTC is 1.9. So for every 1 percent move in BTC, expect 1.9 percent in MSTR.

90 day beta to Nasdaq is 1.4. So it also trades with tech risk.

When BTC rallies, MSTR rallies harder. When BTC falls, MSTR falls harder. That is the trade.

Options market

Open interest is 420,000 contracts.

Put call ratio 0.61. More calls than puts.

Implied volatility 68 percent, down from 92 percent in July.

Biggest open interest at 140 calls for September expiry.

Dealers are short gamma below 130 and long gamma above 140. That means a move above 140 could accelerate.

Risks to monitor

Bitcoin downside. If BTC falls back to 72,000, MSTR likely retests 118 to 120.

Dilution. If they issue 2 billion in convertibles, share count rises 8 to 10 percent.

Regulatory. No new issues, but SEC accounting for digital assets is still evolving.

Liquidity. Average volume 3.6 million. In a sharp selloff, spreads widen.

None of these are pressing today. The trend is up.

The bigger picture for Bitcoin treasury companies

Strategy is the blueprint. But it is not alone anymore.

Metaplanet in Japan, Semler in the US, and 3 new SPACs in Q2 all copied the model. The market cap of public BTC treasury companies is now 42 billion dollars.

The thesis is the same. Buy BTC, hold long term, and let the market reprice the equity at a premium or discount to NAV.

When BTC is rising and ETF flows are strong, the premium expands. When BTC is falling, the discount widens. Right now we are in an expansion phase.

What this means for the market

MSTR breaking 135 is a signal that risk appetite is back. It is also a signal that institutions want BTC exposure through equities.

If MSTR holds 135, it likely trades 142 to 148 into September. If BTC breaks 83,650, MSTR could test 155.

For BTC, MSTR buying is a marginal buyer. Strategy said they will buy when capital is available. With 2.1 billion ATM left, that is 25,800 BTC at current prices.

Trading setup

For swing traders. Buy dips to 130 with a stop at 126. Target 142.

For long term. You are buying 226,500 BTC plus a software business for a 3.4 percent discount. Use 118 as invalidation.

For options. Call spreads 135 to 145 September are popular. IV is reasonable at 68 percent.

Key dates

September 5. US jobs report.

September 11. CPI.

September 17. FOMC meeting.

October 29. Strategy Q3 earnings.

Summary

MSTR 137.40, up 6.8 percent today. First close above 135 in 12 weeks.

Week +14.2 percent. BTC +8.7 percent.

BTC holdings 226,500 worth 18.38 billion.

NAV 142.30. Trading at 3.4 percent discount.

ETF inflows 1.12 billion last 5 days.

Volume 8.4 million, 2.3x average.

Drivers. BTC above 81k, ETF demand, and NAV discount compression.

Levels. Support 126 and 118. Resistance 142 and 148.

Outlook. As long as BTC holds 78,000, MSTR likely trades to 142 to 148. If BTC breaks 83,650, 155 is in play.

This is the same story as 2024 but with better structure. Less leverage, more institutional buyers, and a clear capital plan.

This is market analysis based on public filings, earnings data, and market prices as of August 27 2026. It is not financial advice.