#五大联赛赛前预测官 Borussia Dortmund vs. Hamburg: When the “Yellow-and-Black Giants” Collide with the “Return of Northern Germany,” How Many Scripts Are Hidden in Signal Iduna Park’s Curtain-Raiser?

In February 2018, Hamburg visited Westfalenstadion and lost 0-2 to Borussia Dortmund. After that match, Hamburg slid all the way into the 2. Bundesliga. For eight full years, the “Northern Derby” was absent from the Bundesliga.
Now Hamburg are back. At 12:30 a.m. Beijing time on August 30, at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund will host Hamburg in the Bundesliga season opener.
When the team that once broke the hearts of countless Northern German fans returns to the Bundesliga, its first match is an away trip against last season’s runners-up, Borussia Dortmund, who boast one of Europe’s most intimidating home records—this is a script even a screenwriter would not dare write.

I. Borussia Dortmund: The “Yellow-and-Black Giants” Who Have Replaced Half the Squad, Kovac’s First Major Test
Borussia Dortmund underwent seismic changes this summer. Adeyemi left, Brandt left, and Süle left, replaced by two Greek talents—Kostas Karetsas and Giannis Konstantelias—as well as Dutch midfielder Joey Veerman and others. Head coach Niko Kovac said something interesting before the match: “We already have 25 outfield players, so we don’t need anyone new.”
Translated, that means: I am satisfied with the current squad; now we have to see whether they can deliver. But Kovac does not have a full hand to play. Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck are confirmed absentees—the former has been out for five months with a torn cruciate ligament, while the latter is also unavailable with an ankle ligament injury. Rami Bensebaini injured his ribs against Bayern in the German Super Cup and was still jogging in recovery before the match, so whether he can play will not be decided until the last minute. The good news is that Chukwuemeka took part fully in training this week, while the two Greek newcomers are highly likely to go straight into the starting lineup.
Dortmund are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1: Kobel in goal; Gado, Anton, and Bensebaini (or his replacement) forming the back three; Ryerson and Svensson stationed on the two flanks; Veerman and Nmecha anchoring midfield; and Karetsas and Konstantelias supporting lone striker Guirassy. Last season, Dortmund had the best defense in the Bundesliga, conceding only 34 goals in 34 rounds. In the opening match of the new season, Kovac’s first priority is to make sure this defense does not embarrass itself from the start.

II. Hamburg: After Eight Years, They Are Finally Back—but Their First Match Is Hell Difficulty Hamburg
After finishing 13th as newly promoted side last season, Hamburg successfully avoided relegation. Head coach Merlin Polzin said something significant before the match: “The fact that we face a top-level showdown in the opening round precisely shows Hamburg’s value.” The 35-year-old Polzin guided the team to promotion and survival last season, and is now entering his second Bundesliga campaign. Hamburg also lost key players this summer—their defensive leader Luka Vušković returned to Tottenham after his loan ended, while midfield leader Fabio Vieira likewise returned to Arsenal after his loan spell.
Hamburg also made targeted reinforcements: center-back Sebastian Bornauw was loaned from Leeds United, Zambian striker Patson Daka was signed from Leicester City, and Terem Moffi was also brought in. But the biggest move was making the signing of Danish midfielder Albert Grønbæk permanent—he scored twice in the first round of the DFB-Pokal and assisted 16-year-old Louis Lemke in setting the club’s record for youngest goalscorer. Grønbæk is in red-hot form, while Daka and Moffi also showed a good scoring touch in the preseason friendlies. Hamburg’s attack is certainly not coming just to be cannon fodder.

III. Bloodline Suppression: Dortmund’s Home Ground, Hamburg’s Nightmare
A look at the teams’ head-to-head record makes grim reading for the visitors. Borussia Dortmund have won six and drawn one of their last seven matches against Hamburg, remaining unbeaten. The two sides met in the Bundesliga last season, with Dortmund winning 3-2 at home and drawing 1-1 away.
Even more painful is that Hamburg’s last win at Westfalenstadion dates back to April 2017. But one set of data deserves closer attention: Hamburg won one and drew one of their final two away matches last season, after losing their previous three away games. Away-game consistency is an issue Polzin must solve this season.

IV. How Will This Match Unfold?
There is no reason for Borussia Dortmund not to win. Playing at home in the season opener against last season’s 13th-place team, Dortmund have three factors in their favor, and Kovac’s side must apply intense pressure from the opening whistle. Guirassy failed to score in the German Super Cup, and he urgently needs to prove in league play that he is the “uncontested No. 1 center-forward.” Hamburg’s strategy is much clearer. Polzin will most likely set up in a 3-4-3 or 5-4-1, compact the defense, and rely on the speed of Grønbæk, Daka, and Moffi on the counterattack. Hamburg were not particularly defensive-minded in the Bundesliga last season, and against Dortmund they even led 2-0 away from home until the 70th minute.