#Gate股票观点挑战 Fed Chair to deliver first major speech tonight at 10 p.m., potentially striking a hawkish tone and dampening expectations for a short-term rate cut

10 a.m. Friday New York time—10 p.m. on August 28 Beijing time—Warsh will deliver his first major public speech since taking the helm of the world's most important central bank. Investors are staying on the sidelines, awaiting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium—the most important event for the global monetary policy outlook.
Markets are eagerly awaiting Warsh's speech, which will set the tone for markets over the coming weeks. Many economists warn that he could strike a hawkish tone, dampening expectations for a short-term rate cut.
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk said on Bloomberg Television: “Jackson Hole is the biggest risk event at present. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed cannot cut rates too quickly.”
The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium is underway. Here are the expectations for the meeting.
1. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first major public speech since taking the helm of the world's most important central bank. His opening keynote speech is scheduled for 10 a.m. Friday New York time.
2. Markets are watching closely to see whether Warsh will push back against bets on a rate cut. Recent inflation data came in above market expectations, and trading institutions have already lowered their expectations for a rate cut.
3. Economists are divided: Some expect him to take a hawkish stance, emphasize inflation risks, and warn against easing monetary policy too early; others believe he will preserve policy flexibility without making a clear commitment on the timing of any rate adjustments.
4. A large number of officials from other major central banks around the world will also speak in succession this weekend, including representatives from the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.
5. Important U.S. economic data will also be released: Friday will bring the personal consumption expenditures PCE report, the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator, as well as monthly household consumption data. The theme of this year's symposium is: “Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World.”
The symposium will discuss various risks arising from persistent inflationary pressures, changes in the labor market, and disruptions to global trade.

Impact analysis of hawkish remarks:
1. Beneficiaries: Gold and some export-oriented manufacturing sectors, as a stronger dollar benefits export orders; high-dividend defensive sectors should be relatively resilient.
2. Losers: Overall sentiment in growth sectors will come under pressure, making volatile pullbacks likely.