Gold at $4,590—would you dare buy it?

Look at the surface first: up 20%, with retail investors FOMO-chasing the rally.

After bottoming at 3,940 in late June, it surged all the way to 4,697, gaining 13% in August for its strongest monthly performance of the year. It just hit a 3-month high on Wednesday, then plunged in one large bearish candle, dropping 1.4%. The candlestick is telling you: overbought conditions have reached an extreme, RSI is retreating from elevated levels, MACD is showing signs of bearish divergence, and the short-term market is overheated.

First: the Treasury’s “dollar depreciation trade” ignited gold, but the market may have gone too far.

What was the core catalyst behind this August rebound? Not geopolitics, not inflation—it was the U.S. Treasury expanding its long-term bond buyback program. The market interpreted it as “fiscal dominance + deliberate dollar depreciation,” and gold took off.

New Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday. Will he allow the Treasury to do this?

But the market has already fully priced in expectations that “Warsh will definitely be dovish.” What if he isn’t?

Second: PCE data remains sticky, so rate cuts may not come that quickly.

July PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year (forecast: 3.6%), while core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Inflation stickiness has not eased significantly, with the market pricing in a 36-40% probability of a rate hike in September and still over 70% odds of a rate hike in December.

With inflation still elevated, the Fed will not dare to ease its stance easily.

The market was too optimistic before and is now beginning to correct.

If Warsh is hawkish, gold could plunge straight through 4,500.

Retail investors are betting that “rate cuts are guaranteed,” while the Fed is saying that “inflation is still high.”

Gold rose from 3,940 to 4,697, gaining 20%, fully pricing in both “rate-cut expectations” and “dollar depreciation.”

Third: a signal has appeared on the technical front that must be taken seriously.

Wednesday’s large bearish candle formed the beginnings of a classic evening star—a top-reversal signal. MACD is showing signs of bearish divergence, RSI is retreating from overbought territory, and short-term momentum has clearly weakened.

The 4,520-4,560 zone is the defense area around the 200-day moving average and the lower boundary of this upward channel. Holding it would be a textbook pullback confirmation; losing it would signal a short-term top.

The bulls and bears are battling it out—you decide.

On one side:

Central banks made net purchases of 288.9 tons in Q2, a quarterly record.

ETF net inflows continued in August, with institutions buying.

$40 trillion+ in U.S. Treasuries and dedollarization provide strong long-term fundamentals.

4,520-4,560 is supported by both the 200-day moving average and the channel’s lower boundary.

On the other side:

Gold rose from 3,940 to 4,697, gaining 20%, and is severely overbought in the short term.

Sticky PCE + rising rate-hike odds point to a hawkish interest-rate path.

Uncertainty around Warsh’s speech is extremely high, creating significant expectations-gap risk.

Resistance above: 4,640-4,655 → 4,680-4,700 → 4,780

Support below: 4,560-4,580 → 4,520-4,525 (200-day moving average) → 4,500 → 4,450

Trading strategy

For aggressive short-term traders:

Short lightly if the rebound is rejected at 4,635-4,655, with a stop-loss at 4,670 and targets at 4,580-4,560. Go lightly long if the pullback stabilizes at 4,560-4,580 (confirmed by a bullish 4-hour candle), with a stop-loss at 4,540 and targets at 4,640-4,680.

For medium-term traders:

If the speech is dovish or ambiguous → go long on a sustained break above 4,700, targeting 4,800-5,000. If the speech is hawkish → reduce positions or reverse short after a break below 4,520, targeting 4,450-4,300.

Gold’s current price action looks remarkably similar to the night before BTC broke out in 2024—

99% of people chased at the top, only for one speech to smash straight through support; after the weak hands capitulated, it flew again.

After Warsh’s speech, you will realize:

It wasn’t that gold was weak—it’s that every time, you bet on the outcome before the direction became clear.

What is your cost basis for gold?

At 4,590, would you dare chase it?#英伟达财报周 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #事件合约赛享1%交易量奖励 $BTC $XAU $XAUT