#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX

‌Is the bottom in for SPCX? Or is it just catching its breath? The real answer to the $150 question.
#Gate Stock Opinion Challenge $SPCX
What happened in the last 3 weeks was not a typical IPO story. SPCX went through 3 major lock-up expirations right after the largest IPO in history:
August 6: ∼911.5 million shares (∼$100 billion) unlocked. Closed up 6.1% at $114.92
August 20: ∼319 million shares (7% tranche) unlocked
August 26: Third wave of unlocks
The expected scenario was a 10-15% crash. The opposite happened. The stock closed green on the biggest unlock day and cleared the panic that was created when it broke below the $135 IPO price.
So is this recovery a lasting trend or just a technical bounce? Here is the real picture, in simple terms:
I. Why Did The Rebound Happen?
1. The worst-case was already priced in: The market had priced in the fear of "massive AI spending + 1 billion shares to be dumped" weeks in advance. Actual selling pressure on unlock days was much lower than expected. Short covering accelerated the rally.
2. Fundamentals beat expectations: SPCX beat estimates in its first public earnings.
• Total revenue: $7.81 billion (+91.9% YoY) vs $6.72B expected • AI / xAI revenue: $2.56 billion (+247.5%) • Starlink revenue: $4.29 billion - more than 55% of total revenue and the only consistently profitable segment • Starlink subscribers: 12 million, doubled YoY • Loss narrowed to 9 cents per share, better than expected
This weakened the "just burning cash" narrative.
3. Psychological level reclaimed: Breaking below the $135 IPO price had created panic. Moving back toward that level brought dip buyers and ETFs back in.
II. Why The $150 Wall Won't Be Easy?
1. The lock-up calendar is not over, the bigger ones are coming: To reduce shock, SPCX management planned a 9-stage unlock structure. Still ahead:
• Similar 7% blocks will continue in the coming months • Much larger tranches in December 2026 and June 2027. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares alone unlock in June 2027
As the price rises, early investors' unrealized gains increase. That means profit-taking at every rally.
2. AI bill is enormous: AI revenue exploded in Q2, but so did CAPEX and R&D. The company is spending billions on space-based AI data centers, Nvidia partnerships, and V3 satellites. Even though Starlink's operating income jumped 79%, the payback period for AI remains uncertain. That puts the high valuation under question.
3. Extreme sensitivity to news flow: SPCX is not a classic stock; it's a rocket, satellite, AI, and Elon Musk narrative all in one. A single headline - Starship test results, Starlink ARPU dropping from $86 to $66 - can reverse sentiment in a day.
III. What Do Institutions Expect?
Bull case - Deutsche Bank / Bank of America: They think the AI business is mispriced by the market. Targets of $235-$300 are still on the table. Their thesis: If AI revenue keeps growing over 100% quarter-over-quarter, the psychological resistance at $150 will break and a new trend will start.
Bearish / Cautious case - Goldman Sachs / JPMorgan: Valuation is expensive. In the short term, there is not enough demand to absorb the unlock supply. Expect a $130-$150 range, with strong resistance at $150. For a sustainable rally they need 2 things: 1) Proof that actual unlocked selling is absorbed, 2) Evidence of positive free cash flow from AI.
Conclusion: What To Do?
This rally is not a "trend reversal", it's a "worst is behind us" rally.
A touch of $150 in the short term is possible, but for staying above it you must track 3 data points:
1. Settlement data from August unlocks: Who actually bought the shares that were sold? 2. Price action before the November-December unlocks 3. Q3 earnings: Whether AI revenue can climb above $3B from $2.56B and whether CAPEX is brought under control.
As a strategy: Gradual profit-taking toward $150 makes sense, but for new buying it's more rational to wait for the December unlocks to be digested. SPCX is in a bottoming process right now, the rocket hasn't fired its second stage yet.