NVIDIA earnings week: NVDA’s most dangerous rival isn’t AMD, but Wall Street’s “perfectionism”

When discussing NVIDIA, many people immediately think of AMD, Google’s TPU, or self-developed AI chips.
But I think NVDA’s biggest competitor right now is actually something invisible:
market expectations.
NVIDIA’s results for the second fiscal quarter were extremely impressive: revenue of $96.22 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.22, and data center revenue of $89 billion, up 117% year over year.
But the problem is that the market already knew NVIDIA would perform well.
So what truly determines the stock price after earnings has never been “whether there was growth,” but rather:
whether the results exceeded the script everyone had already imagined.
NVIDIA’s current revenue guidance for the third fiscal quarter is $108 billion, with an expected gross margin of approximately 74%; meanwhile, the company expects revenue to maintain approximately 70% growth in the next fiscal year.
This guidance is actually very important.
Because the market has long been concerned about one question: how long can massive AI capital expenditures continue?
NVIDIA’s answer is now quite direct:
at least for now, orders and demand do not appear to be slowing down.
More interestingly, Vera Rubin has entered the ramp-up phase of mass production, meaning NVIDIA is continuing its transition from the Blackwell cycle into the next-generation product cycle.
This is also why I believe NVDA’s medium- and long-term fundamentals remain relatively strong.
Of course, the risks must be taken seriously.
Rising memory prices could compress gross margins, customers’ self-developed chips could create competition, uncertainty remains in the Chinese market, and investors will increasingly scrutinize whether AI infrastructure investments can ultimately generate sufficiently high returns.
Therefore, I will not simply say, “The earnings report is bullish, buy with your eyes closed.”
My view is more like this:
the industry fundamentals are bullish, while the stock price will focus on expectations in the short term.
If NVDA can continue to prove that AI demand has not cooled, capital may continue flowing back in.
But if the market finds that “it’s very good, just not a surprise,” profit-taking after the earnings report would also be entirely normal.
After all, NVIDIA is too excellent right now.
How excellent?
Score 98, and the market asks why it wasn’t 100; score 100, and the market starts asking whether it can reach 105 next year.
That is NVDA’s real predicament.
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