#老用户1BTC回归礼 Is Bitcoin unable to rise further?

Every crypto industry conference is a moment retail investors look forward to most. Industry heavyweights lend their support, institutions speak out, and positive developments in regulation and the ecosystem are released in quick succession. Everyone shares the same expectation: positive news materializes, funds enter, prices break through, and accounts double. Reality, however, is often the opposite. Today is August 27, 2026, and the Bitcoin Asia conference has officially opened in Hong Kong. CZ, Balaji Srinivasan, David Bailey, and many other figures have gathered, with policymakers, institutional allocators, and mining companies sharing the stage. Normally, such an occasion should be an emotional high point. Yet after rebounding from around $64k since August 19 to a high of approximately $81.2k, Bitcoin has remained stuck around $78k-$79k, with its upward momentum clearly exhausted.
Countless people have two core questions: Have the positive developments already lost their effect, with capital no longer willing to lift Bitcoin? Or have retail investors finally come to their senses collectively and stopped blindly buying the top?
What is even more anxiety-inducing is that the long-standing pattern of the crypto market appears unchanged: after the positive news from a conference is priced in, the market will most likely quickly change direction, first pulling back to harvest positions, then rallying in the opposite direction, washing out everyone in the market from both sides.
Why do the vast majority of traders spend years studying candlestick charts, macro news, tactics, and indicators, yet still fail to escape repeated liquidations? The answer has never been in the news or charts, but in human weaknesses that everyone understands yet most people cannot overcome. Market makers and large funds precisely exploit greed and fear, wishful thinking and herd mentality, using news and capital flows to create false impressions of rising and falling prices.
Below, based on this conference's price action, recent actual capital flows, ETF inflow and outflow data, liquidation figures, and the battle between longs and shorts, we will objectively break down the reasons for the stalled rise, review the underlying logic of the harvesting process, forecast the pace for September, and identify the core risks. This is purely an analysis of facts and logic and does not provide any investment advice.

After shorts were collectively liquidated, the fuel for the rise has been exhausted
The core driver of this round of rapid growth from around $64k to a high of approximately $81.2k was not simply spot buying, but one of the largest short squeezes in history. Short liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion on August 19 alone, setting a record. Short liquidations continued over the following days, with cumulative short liquidations exceeding $7 billion over the past week. Short sellers were forced to buy to close their positions as prices rose, creating mechanical buying that drove prices rapidly higher. But squeezes have limits.
After most highly leveraged shorts were cleared out, this forced buying disappeared. Prices lost their upward inertia and entered a sideways phase. The current level of $78k-$79k is the natural result after the squeeze momentum faded. It is not that buyers suddenly disappeared; rather, the “false buying” that drove the rise has been used up.

Positive news was priced in early, while institutions are making steady allocations rather than frantically lifting prices
The conference itself released positive signals concerning regulatory progress, institutional positioning, and ecosystem upgrades. But capital markets always trade on expectations and sell the news when it materializes. Expectations related to this conference had already been partially absorbed before the event, so when they actually materialized, insufficient new buying left the market naturally stuck. At the same time, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw actual capital flows. They recorded net inflows for at least seven consecutive trading days in mid-to-late August, with cumulative August inflows exceeding $3 billion and the highest single-day inflow surpassing $600 million. BlackRock's IBIT contributed most of the inflows. By August 25-26, total ETF assets were close to $99 billion, while the year-to-date net outflow had narrowed significantly from its peak.
Institutions are indeed buying, but their approach is completely different from that of retail investors. They allocate according to plans and build positions based on risk models; they do not blindly chase prices higher just because a conference has opened. ETF inflows have supported the bottom and the rebound, but are insufficient to create a frenzied one-way rally in the short term. This is the key capital reason why prices could rise from the lows but became stuck at their current level. Institutions are not here to help retail investors push prices to the top; they would rather accumulate gradually within a relatively controllable range.
Retail sentiment is also changing. After years of repeated harvesting, more and more people have formed a fixed perception: positive news at industry conferences is often a point where short-term sentiment is realized. Blindly chasing highs and heavily leveraged speculation have declined, and there is insufficient follow-on capital. Without enough incremental buyers, prices naturally struggle to break through. At the macro level, global capital is limited, some hot money is flowing into other sectors, and overall risk appetite is relatively cautious, also limiting the room for a one-way surge.

The true market picture revealed by capital flows and liquidation data
The essence of market rises and falls is the direction of capital flows. ETF data shows that incremental institutional buying clearly returned in August, but at a steady pace rather than through cost-insensitive price pushing. Whales and long-term holders took some profits during the rebound, increasing selling pressure above. The current market is characterized by “steady institutional allocation, some funds taking profits at elevated levels, and retail investors staying on the sidelines,” with long momentum weakening. Liquidation data directly reflects sentiment.
This round of gains mainly washed out shorts, with enormous short liquidations. Volatility then declined, and repeated small spikes by both longs and shorts at elevated levels became the norm. Frequent small fluctuations liquidating short-term, highly leveraged long positions indicate that the current focus is not on pushing or crashing prices in one direction, but on using sideways volatility to wash out short-term leveraged capital in the market, erode patience, and build energy for the subsequent choice of direction. Leverage in the market is becoming more cautious, and trading activity is declining.

The underlying logic of two-way harvesting: what is harvested is never knowledge, but human nature
Veteran crypto players all share the same feeling: the market seems never to escape the cycle of “a conference's positive news drives a surge, realization brings a pullback, the pullback is followed by a rebound, and both sides are harvested.” Many people have spent years honing their skills and are proficient in technical analysis, fundamentals, macroeconomics, and tactics. Their knowledge is sufficient, yet they still lose money. The problem is not technical expertise, but the inability to overcome human weaknesses.
The logic of market makers is simple and unchanged for years. Before the event, they release expectations and push prices up slightly, creating the illusion of continuation and new highs, while using greed to attract chasing and leverage. Once the positive news materializes and enough buyers have entered, they stop providing strong support and take profits in batches, driving a decline. Those who chased long positions at the top become trapped or liquidated. When prices reach lower levels, panic selling emerges, followed by buying the dip and a rebound, causing those who missed the move to chase again. After one cycle, those trapped at the top, those who cut losses at the bottom, and those who chase but miss the rally are washed out from both sides.
Everyone knows that chasing highs is highly risky, heavy positions are dangerous, and emotional trading inevitably leads to losses. But amid price volatility, news-driven stimulation, and the surrounding atmosphere of profits, the vast majority of people cannot stick to discipline. Understanding the principles but being unable to control greed and fear is the root cause of repeated harvesting.

Short term after the conference: the probability of a pullback to the $74,000-$75,000 range is not low
In the short term, elevated price stagnation, positive news being fully priced in, ample selling pressure above, and insufficient incremental buying do not provide the conditions for a sustained breakout. Based on historical patterns and the current capital structure, the probability is relatively high that the market will enter a corrective washout to repair overbought conditions and clear out high-level positions. The $74,000-$75,000 range is a key support reference zone during this rebound and also an area with concentrated capital. Market makers have already completed one round of clearing through the short squeeze and some profit-taking at elevated levels, so the market may not need an extremely deep sell-off. A phased pullback to this range is possible and would represent normal realization of positive news and technical repair, rather than a complete reversal of the trend.
The purposes of a pullback typically include clearing high-level momentum long positions, deleveraging, creating room, and generating a degree of panic to acquire lower-cost positions. After positions have been sufficiently exchanged, the market often returns to sideways trading or a phased rebound, continuing the two-way rhythm.

Overall in September: sideways volatility and position-clearing are likely to dominate, with a low probability of an extreme one-way move
From the perspective of support, the broader macro liquidity backdrop has not completely turned, the long-term narratives of industry regulation and institutional allocation remain intact, and Bitcoin's long-term structure has not been damaged. If a thorough washout is completed and capital flows back in, Bitcoin could once again test above $80k and probe higher ranges. But considering actual capital flows and market rhythm, the probability of directly and continuously charging toward $90k-$100k is relatively low.
Limiting factors include the following: although ETFs have seen inflows, this needs to be continuously verified; after multiple rounds of volatility, the market's ability to absorb selling is limited; and before the turnover of positions is sufficiently completed, there is insufficient momentum for a one-way surge.
Overall, September will most likely follow a rhythm of “first a pullback or sideways washout, then recovery, followed by a choice of direction.” Two-way volatility, with rises serving as phased rebounds and declines as technical pullbacks, may remain the dominant theme. The probabilities of an extreme surge or an extreme plunge are both relatively limited.

The core risks that must be faced now
First, completely abandon the fixed mindset that “positive news must lead to a rise.” Capital markets always price in positive news ahead of time and take profits once it materializes. Conference events are often short-term risk windows, so do not blindly chase highs or heavily speculate on a breakout.
Second, beware of sideways washouts at elevated levels. The current stalled rise is more likely a signal of profit-taking and loosening positions than simple energy accumulation. The risks of holding positions at elevated levels must be recognized clearly.
Third, eliminate high leverage and frequent short-term trading. In an environment of declining volatility and repeated small spikes by longs and shorts, high leverage is easily cleared out by minor fluctuations, while frequent trading will only cause continuous losses.
Fourth, understand the essence of the market. Rises and falls ultimately depend on the rhythm of capital and human nature. Every fluctuation may be a position turnover operation exploiting greed and fear. Controlling emotions, reducing frequency, and abandoning wishful thinking are the keys to avoiding most conventional traps.

The stalled rise after this conference is not the result of the market suddenly weakening, but the inevitable outcome of a shift in capital rhythm, the realization of positive news, and the exchange of long and short positions. The probability of a short-term corrective washout is not low, and September is more likely to center on sideways washouts and a two-way rhythm. The market's greatest enemy has never been the market makers or the market itself, but the human weaknesses that traders cannot overcome. Understanding capital flows, recognizing patterns, and restraining emotions are far more important than studying indicators and chasing news. Before a clear one-way trend and sustained capital inflows emerge, staying clear-headed and strictly controlling risk is the attitude most needed at present. $BTC ‌