#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX After multiple large-scale lock-up expirations on August 6, August 20, and August 26, SPCX's stock price rebounded, but whether it can return to $150 and begin a new round of gains requires a comprehensive assessment of market sentiment, subsequent lock-up expiration pressure, and the realization of its fundamentals.

I. Drivers of the Rebound
1. Negative factors priced in and sentiment reversal: The market had already fully absorbed the pessimistic expectations surrounding “massive AI capital expenditures” and “large-scale lock-up expirations.” Actual selling pressure after the expirations was lower than expected, while short covering also drove the rapid short-term rebound.
2. Better-than-expected fundamentals: SPCX's 2026 Q2 financial report showed substantial growth in revenue ($7.8 billion) and its AI business ($2.56 billion), while the Starlink business remained steady. This partially eased market concerns about its “excessive cash burn” and restored some market sentiment.
3. Technical and sentiment recovery: The stock price reclaimed the $135 IPO issue price, easing some of the panic caused by the break below the issue price and attracting renewed attention from some investors.
II. Factors Restricting the Rebound
1. Subsequent lock-up expiration pressure remains: SPCX uses a staggered lock-up expiration mechanism, with a large number of restricted shares still scheduled to be unlocked in the coming months, including even larger-scale expirations in early November and December. As the stock price rebounds, early investors' unrealized gains increase, and potential profit-taking selling will continue to constrain sustained upside.
2. Concerns over AI capital expenditures: Although SPCX's AI business (xAI) is growing rapidly, its capital expenditures are enormous, reaching $18.37 billion in Q2. Short-term cash flow pressure is substantial, and the market remains divided over the payback period and profitability of its AI investments, putting its high valuation to the test.
3. Market sentiment and valuation dynamics: SPCX previously experienced a sharp decline after a surge, leaving market sentiment relatively sensitive. In the short term, the rebound is vulnerable to news developments, such as Starship test progress, and broader market sentiment, while there is no definitive catalyst for a sustained one-way rally.
III. Institutional Expectations and Outlook
·Bullish view: Some institutions, such as Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, believe SPCX's valuation is misaligned and that its AI business is undervalued by the market. If AI revenue continues to exceed expectations, the stock still has room to rise. Some institutions have price targets between $235 and $300, believing there is a solid basis for a breakout above $150.
Bearish/cautious view: Some institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, point out that SPCX's valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to fully absorb lock-up expiration selling pressure in the short term. In addition, the payback period for its AI investments remains uncertain. They believe the stock will face strong resistance around $150 and may remain range-bound in the short term, such as within the $130–$150 range, making it difficult to quickly establish a new one-way surge.
Conclusion: This rebound in SPCX is a technical recovery following the exhaustion of negative factors. A return to $150 in the short term is possible, but continued sharp gains will be difficult due to subsequent lock-up expiration selling pressure and valuation concerns. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the absorption of actual selling pressure from unlocked shares, the monetization capabilities of the AI business, and subsequent financial results. In the short term, the stock will most likely remain in a range-bound bottoming process. $SPCX ‌