‍#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX

SpaceX rises instead of falling after the unlock! How should this rebound be viewed?

SpaceX’s listing seemed to sound the death knell for AI technology stocks. After briefly surging above $200 following its listing, the stock quickly retreated and plunged all the way down, dragging the entire AI sector lower. Even more despairingly, in early August the stock faced the dual pressure of an epic unlock of 911.5 million shares and a surge in capital expenditures in its first earnings report, sending market pessimism to a peak. Yet an unexpected plot twist unfolded: after the massive unlock took effect, SPCX was not crushed by selling pressure; instead, it staged a strong recovery rebound. The core question across the market now is: Is this rebound the starting point of a new major uptrend, or merely a short-lived sentiment recovery after the negative news has been priced in? With a trillion-dollar valuation, can the stock successfully return to the $150 level?

📊 Core fundamentals: A comprehensive breakdown of the latest market cap, valuation, and P/E

To assess the rebound’s upside, one must first understand SPCX’s current valuation positioning, which is the key factor determining the market ceiling.

1. Latest market capitalization

Following the recovery rebound after the unlock, SPCX’s share price is currently holding firm in the $138–$140 range, corresponding to a total market capitalization of approximately $1.84 trillion. Compared with its $1.77 trillion valuation at the beginning of its listing, this represents a slight increase, but compared with its listing peak of $2.65 trillion, its market cap has plunged by more than $800 billion, as the valuation bubble continues to deflate.

2. Key interpretation of price-to-earnings (P/E)❌

SPCX is currently in a high-intensity expansion cycle. Starship development, AI computing infrastructure, and the global deployment of Starlink continue to consume huge amounts of cash, leaving the company in a state of ongoing net losses, with negative TTM earnings per share.

Simply put, SPCX cannot be measured using traditional earnings-valuation logic. The market is not trading on current profits, but on long-term growth expectations.

3. Price-to-sales (P/S) valuation positioning✅

The market currently uniformly uses the price-to-sales ratio to determine whether SPCX’s valuation is expensive, with its current forward P/S ratio at approximately 46x.

For comparison: mature U.S. technology giants and semiconductor leaders have an average P/S ratio of just 2–8x. Even among high-growth AI stocks, more than 30x is already considered a high-premium range. A 46x P/S ratio means the market has already priced in growth expectations for the next several years, leaving extremely little room for valuation error.

4. Core valuation contradiction (key)💡
✅ Positive support: The Starlink business has achieved independent profitability and serves as the company’s core cash-flow engine, with revenue growth reaching 33% year over year in 2025 and strong growth resilience;

❌ Negative pressure: Overall massive losses have not narrowed, quarterly capital expenditures at one point surged nearly sixfold, and continued R&D expansion is consuming profits, making it difficult to deliver earnings that match a trillion-dollar valuation in the short term.

Summary: SPCX is a growth stock characterized by “high growth + high losses + an ultra-high valuation,” leaving extremely little room for error. Positive news is unlikely to exceed expectations, while negative news can easily be amplified.

🔍 The underlying logic of this rebound: It is not driven by positive news, but by the exhaustion of negative factors

This rally is not the result of a fundamental transformation, but a typical sentiment-recovery and position-clearing move.

The market had been uniformly concerned that the massive unlock of 911.5 million shares—1.4 times the size of the IPO float—would trigger concentrated cash-outs by early shareholders and employees, causing the share price to break down sharply. But after the unlock took effect, a large amount of low-cost stock was held rather than sold, and selling pressure was far below the market’s pessimistic expectations.

Combined with concentrated short covering and funds bargain-hunting amid oversold conditions, this directly drove the share price’s recovery rebound. But the core logic must be clear: the fading of unlock pressure is merely a “reason for the decline to stop,” not a “logic for a major rally.” Without new fundamental catalysts, the rebound will ultimately remain a recovery move rather than develop into a trend reversal.

🛡️⚔️ Key price-level battle between bulls and bears: 135 support + 150 strong resistance

1. Core support: $135 (IPO offering price)

This is the bulls’ final defensive line. As long as the stock does not effectively break below $135 during the rebound, the recovery trend remains intact, and the share price will have opportunities to repeatedly test $150. Once it breaks below that level on heavy volume, the rebound will end immediately, and the market will return to a weak bottom-finding phase.

2. Core resistance: $150 (key strong-resistance dividing line)

$150 is far more than a simple round-number level; it is a major trapped-holder resistance zone. The holding costs of many retail investors and institutions that chased the stock early after listing are concentrated in the $150–$190 range. Once the share price reaches this zone, substantial selling from investors seeking to break even will emerge. At the same time, a large number of resistance contracts in the options market are concentrated at $150–$155, further capping the upside.

⚠️ Note: A brief intraday touch of $150 does not count as a breakout. The stock must hold above it on heavy volume and maintain closing prices above it for 2–3 consecutive days to qualify as an effective breakout and open up further upside.

⚠️ Medium- and long-term hidden risks capping the rebound

1. Unlock pressure has not ended: This is only the first round of large-scale unlocks. Multiple additional rounds of restricted shares will be unlocked later, meaning sustained long-term pressure from the supply of shares;

2. Significant valuation-bubble pressure: The 46x P/S ratio is far above the industry average, and any weakening in high-growth expectations could easily trigger a valuation-driven sell-off;

3. The profitability challenge remains unresolved: Although the core businesses’ cash-generation capacity is stable, ongoing spending on R&D expansion continues, making it difficult to achieve overall profitability in the short term;

✅ Final summary

In the short term, SPCX has the technical conditions to challenge $150, but the logic of negative news being fully priced in is not enough to keep it above that level.

Whether $150 can be reclaimed depends mainly on two factors: first, whether funds can absorb the heavy overhead supply on strong volume; second, whether the company can deliver new fundamental growth to digest the valuation premium implied by its ultra-high 46x P/S ratio.

Before a decisive breakout above $150–$155 on strong volume, this market move should only be defined as an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal.