$SPCX Rebounds After the Unlock — But Can It Actually Return to $150?

Gate Square | #GateStockInsightsChallenge | $SPCX

Ten weeks into life as a public company, SpaceX has already delivered more volatility, more drama, and more analytical interest than most stocks produce in a decade.

And right now sitting at approximately $137 after surviving what many expected to be a catastrophic lock-up unlock $SPCX is presenting investors with one of the most genuinely interesting risk/reward puzzles in the entire market.

Is this the beginning of a sustained recovery toward $150 and beyond? Or is it a technical rebound in a stock that still has significant supply overhang pressure ahead?

I've spent the past week going through the data, the analyst commentary, and the specific mechanics of what has happened to SPCX since its June 12 IPO. Here is my honest, structured assessment.

The Full Story: From $225 to $104 and Back Again

To understand where SPCX is going, you have to understand where it's been because the path from IPO to today is not a simple story of a stock that went down and is bouncing back. It is a story about liquidity mechanics, institutional positioning, and what happens when one of the most anticipated IPOs in history meets the specific realities of post-IPO trading dynamics.

SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. The first few sessions priced the company like scarcity itself was an asset. The stock reached an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, then lost more than half its value before finding a low at $104.83 on August 3.

From $225 to $104 in less than two months. That is a 53% decline from the peak the kind of drawdown that would be considered severe for almost any stock, let alone one of the most valuable companies in the world by market capitalization.

But here is the crucial analytical point that most retail commentary on SPCX has missed: the decline from $225 to $104 was not primarily driven by a deterioration in SpaceX's fundamental business. It was driven by the specific mechanics of IPO lock-up expirations and the resulting surge in available share supply.

SpaceX fell 4.05% on one session and slipped back under its $135 IPO price after 319 million shares hit the market, adding fresh supply. And then contrary to what most traders expected something interesting happened.

On August 6, when SpaceX faced its first lock-up expiration of approximately 911 million shares, the stock did not collapse as expected, but instead rebounded over 26% from its August 5 low of $105. The increased float improved liquidity, facilitating institutional buying and short covering.

The unlock that everyone feared became the catalyst for a recovery. Why? Because as the lock-up expiration caused the free float to surge from approximately 639 million shares to 1.55 billion shares, it resolved the market's previous bottlenecks of an excessively small float and insufficient liquidity. This prompted large institutions and passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 to build up sufficient positions at more reasonable costs.

This is a genuinely important insight: the unlock didn't kill the stock. It gave institutional investors the liquidity they needed to actually buy it at scale. And they did.

Where SPCX Stands Today The Specific Numbers

Let me be precise about the current technical and fundamental picture.

At current prices around $137-$138, the stock's 52-week range extends from a low of $104.83 to a high of $225.64. Market capitalization is approximately $1.87 trillion.

SpaceX stock reversed higher during the U.S. session, gaining around 2.5% and extending its recovery after a volatile August. The rebound has pushed shares back toward the $140 level, suggesting that buyers are returning following the recent selloff.

The technical picture from here is nuanced. A move above $151 that holds on high volume would confirm that the August rebound has become more than a relief rally. Until then, buying at $140 means entering just below resistance while the nearest meaningful support sits around $122.

So the technical framework gives us a clear structure:

• Current price: ~$137-138
• Key resistance: $151 — the level to watch
• Support zone: $122-$126
• All-time high: $225.64 (June 16)
• 52-week low: $104.83 (August 3)

The question of whether SPCX can return to $150 is essentially the question of whether the August rebound has the momentum, the institutional backing, and the fundamental justification to push through the $151 resistance level on volume.

The Fundamental Business That Justifies Watching This Closely

The stock price matters, but the underlying business is what determines whether any price level is worth buying or selling.

Last week SpaceX reported better-than-expected revenue in its first earnings report since the company made its historic debut on the Nasdaq in June. SpaceX said it generated $7.81 billion in revenue during its second quarter, up from the $6.93 billion expected by analysts.

Better-than-expected revenue in Q2. Strong Starlink growth. A launch cadence that has no meaningful competitor. These are the fundamentals that make the bull case coherent rather than merely hopeful.

Nvidia disclosed a $21 billion stake in SpaceX at the end of its second quarter. When the world's most important AI infrastructure company takes a $21 billion position in a newly public stock, that is a signal worth taking seriously. Nvidia's investment thesis is not about rockets. It is about the AI and compute infrastructure that SpaceX represents Starlink's network architecture, SpaceX's data processing capabilities, and the convergence of space infrastructure with terrestrial AI systems.

The analyst community remains broadly constructive. Citi analysts revised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts higher as a result of rolling forward sources of the Q2 beat. They reiterated the company as a buy with a price target of $200, planning to adjust their target ratably toward the $900+ long-term valuation level as major milestones are hit.

$200 near-term. $900+ long-term. These are not the price targets of analysts who think this stock is in trouble.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $27.5 million of SpaceX stock while selling $27.2 million of Palantir shares in the same session a clear statement of portfolio rotation toward SPCX from one of the most closely-watched technology investors in the market.

The Specific Risk That Still Matters: The Unlock Schedule

Here is the part of this analysis that I think most bullish commentary is not being honest enough about.

Thursday marks SpaceX's 70th trading day as a public company, following an earlier unlock that released approximately 912 million shares and increased the public float from below 5% to more than 12%. More shares are scheduled to become tradable in the coming months.

The unlock schedule is the single most important near-term risk factor for SPCX, and it operates independently of the fundamental business quality. Here is the basic mechanics: when lock-up periods expire, early investors and insiders who have been holding shares since before the IPO gain the legal right to sell those shares. If they sell in volume, the additional supply depresses the price regardless of what the business is doing.

The first major unlock the one everyone feared on August 6 did not cause the collapse that bears had predicted. The stock actually rallied. But the reasons for that resilience institutional demand providing liquidity for the expanded float, short covering amplifying the move may not apply with equal force to subsequent unlocks.

These releases could continue creating a supply overhang, particularly if early investors or insiders decide to lock in gains.

The honest assessment: the unlock schedule is a genuine headwind that creates a ceiling on near-term price appreciation and a source of periodic volatility that will not go away until the unlock calendar is cleared. Investors who buy SPCX at current levels need to be prepared for additional 10-15% drawdowns around unlock events, even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

The Bull Case for $150 What Would Need to Be True

Let me build the specific bull case for a return to $150, because I think it is important to be precise about what conditions would need to be met.

Condition One: The Unlock Absorption Continues

The August 6 unlock demonstrated that institutional demand is real and substantial enough to absorb major supply additions without catastrophic price impact. If subsequent unlocks show similar absorption if the institutions that rotated into SPCX during the float expansion continue to buy rather than flip the supply pressure narrative weakens materially.

Condition Two: Starlink Subscriber Growth Acceleration

SpaceX's near-term revenue visibility is primarily tied to Starlink's subscriber growth trajectory. A meaningful positive surprise in subscriber additions or a price increase that expands revenue per subscriber would provide the fundamental catalyst that the technical setup currently lacks. The move above $151 that technical analysts have identified as the key confirmation level would be far more likely to hold if accompanied by strong Starlink data.

Condition Three: Starship Milestones

Citi analysts stated: "Given the dependency of out-year forecasts and valuation on successful Starship milestones, we plan to adjust our target ratably toward the $900+ long-term valuation level as major milestones are hit."

The long-term valuation for SPCX the $900+ figure that Citi has published is contingent on Starship's successful development as a fully reusable heavy-lift system. Each Starship milestone achieved is a de-risking event that justifies multiple expansion. A successful Starship test or a major commercial contract that depends on Starship capability could be the catalyst that pushes SPCX through $151 and toward $165-$175.

Condition Four: Continued Institutional Accumulation

Institutional buying helped support the earlier recovery, with 13F filings revealing significant positions from major investors. If the 13F filings in November 2026 show continued institutional accumulation at August prices, that will be evidence that the smart money is treating the current price level as an opportunity rather than an exit point.

The Bear Case What Could Push It Below $122

In the interest of honest analysis, here is the specific scenario in which the current rebound fails and SPCX retests support.

The primary bear catalyst is a combination of unlock-related selling and a near-term earnings miss. If Q3 2026 revenue comes in below expectations perhaps because Starlink growth disappointed or launch cadence was disrupted while a major unlock simultaneously releases new supply, the stock could test the $122 support level and potentially break below it.

SpaceX's current EPS (TTM) is -$0.68 the company is not yet profitable on a trailing twelve-month basis. A company trading at $1.87 trillion market cap with negative earnings is priced entirely on forward expectations, which means any negative surprise to those forward expectations creates disproportionate downside pressure.

The China-Apple supply chain risk though primarily a SNDK story also creates indirect pressure on technology multiples broadly when geopolitical tension around chip supply chains escalates. SPCX is not immune to broader technology multiple compression.

My Honest Assessment: Can It Return to $150?

Yes but the path is not as clean as the bull case would suggest.

The fundamental business is exceptional. Q2 revenue beat. Nvidia's $21 billion stake. Citi's $200 target. ARK's rotation into the position. These are not the characteristics of a stock that is structurally broken.

The technical setup is constructive. The stock is above its 20-day moving average. The $126 area remains an important support zone, and holding above the 20-day SMA could help maintain the August recovery. The volume on recovery days has been stronger than volume on down days a positive sign.

But the unlock schedule is the wild card that makes a straight-line path to $150 unlikely. The stock has not yet cleared the main overhead supply zone. A move above $151 that holds on high volume would confirm that the August rebound has become more than a relief rally.

My specific view:

SPCX reaches $150 but probably not in a straight line. The most likely path is a continued choppy recovery between $130-$145 over the next 4-6 weeks, interrupted by volatility around upcoming unlock events, followed by a cleaner move through $151 if Q3 revenue delivers another positive surprise and Starship hits a meaningful milestone.

The scenario in which it does NOT return to $150 within three months involves a major unlock causing an institutional re-evaluation of the position, combined with a fundamental disappointment in either Starlink growth or launch revenue.

I am watching $151 as the key confirmation level. I am watching $122 as the key risk management level. And I am watching the next Starship test and the next Starlink subscriber number as the fundamental catalysts that will determine which level gets tested first.

This content is my personal analysis submitted for the Gate Square Stock Insights Challenge. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. $SPCX is a highly volatile stock with significant risk. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.