#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SPCX SPCX (SpaceX) rebounded to around $148 after the lock-up expiration. $150, the key psychological threshold at the listing opening price, has a high probability of being breached in the short term, but the current move looks more like a temporary rebound driven by “technical repair after the lock-up expiration + sentiment recovery,” rather than a new major uptrend. The core contradictions are the mismatch between valuation and fundamentals and the risk of short-term volatility; in the long term, profit realization still needs to be verified.

1. Short term: $150 is likely to be breached, but sustainability is uncertain
Rebound drivers: The two lock-up expirations in August (the first batch in July and 319 million shares in mid-August) did not trigger a selling wave. “Cathie Wood” buying and short covering (down sharply from the peak) drove the stock to rebound more than 40% from its $105 low, while the $135 offering price provided firm support, leaving $150 within easy reach;
Resistance and risks: $150 is the listing opening price and a previous area of concentrated trading volume, so a breakout requires higher volume; on Thursday (August 25), it fell back to $137.95 (+2.19%), and remained volatile even after recovering on Friday. If next week’s Jackson Hole central bank meeting takes a hawkish stance, the high valuation (93x price-to-sales ratio) could be vulnerable to liquidity shocks, while slower-than-expected Starship launch progress or AI computing-power deployment could trigger a pullback.

2. Medium term: The rebound is not a major uptrend, and the core contradictions remain unresolved
Valuation and fundamentals are diverging: Revenue is growing rapidly (2026Q2 up 91.94% year on year), but the company remains loss-making (Q2 net loss of $541 million). The growth in Starlink users (10.3 million) conflicts with the decline in ARPU (-18%), while the AI computing-power story (Anthropic’s $45 billion contract) has not contributed profits. Goldman Sachs’ 2030 revenue forecast ($322 billion) faces considerable uncertainty in realization;
Institutional expectations are divided: Morgan Stanley has a $300 price target (based on AI computing power), but S&P / Moody’s warn of high AI funding needs and intense competition. A Yale professor questions whether “the story can be realized,” while the lowest ESG rating is suppressing long-term institutional allocations.

3. Conclusion and trading recommendations
$150 is reachable in the short term, but the stock may struggle to hold above it after a breakout, with volatility likely to prevail;
Trading: Reduce positions in batches around $148-$150 in the short term, and watch for support around $135; in the medium to long term, wait for a pullback to $120-$130, or for the Q3 earnings report to verify signs of Starlink reaching breakeven and AI computing-power deployment;
Risks: Fed policy tightening, a failed Starship launch, slowing Starlink user growth, and delays to AI contracts.

Core logic: The short-term move is sentiment-driven, while the long term depends on profit realization. The current rebound is not a major uptrend, and $150 is a level for reducing positions rather than adding to them.$SPCX ‌