#五大联赛赛前预测官 A new chapter begins at the Bernabéu! Mourinho returns for his home debut—can Real Madrid maintain their dominance over Real Sociedad?

La Liga — Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad, Mourinho returns to the Bernabéu after 13 years! 7 key players are injured, Mbappé is still off the mark, and Real Sociedad specializes in taking down elite opponents? Understand the 3 key information gaps in this rescheduled La Liga match to see the real script for Real Madrid tonight.

I. Mourinho’s return debut is about far more than simply “coming home”
Many people only know that Mourinho is returning to the Bernabéu after 13 years, but fail to realize the special context of this match—it is Real Madrid’s first home game in more than three months. Mourinho said bluntly at the pre-match press conference: “I hope the Bernabéu welcomes the team with passion.” This is not an ordinary league match, but Mourinho’s “welcome gift” to the home fans. Real Sociedad manager Matarazzo admitted before the match that Mourinho has already changed Real Madrid’s attacking and defensive structure, with “very strong counter-pressing.” A legend who has not appeared at the Bernabéu as the home-team coach for 13 years, leading a partially rebuilt Real Madrid side, has a desire to win in this debut that is being seriously underestimated.
II. Real Madrid are missing 7 players, but a hidden weapon lies behind the “depleted lineup”
Real Madrid officially confirmed that 7 first-team players will miss the match through injury: Tchouaméni, Militão, Mendy, Rodrygo, Endrick, Asensio and Pitarczyk. On the surface, Real Madrid are fielding a “depleted lineup,” but look closely at the starting XI—Courtois guards the goal, while Dumfries, Konaté, Huijsen and Cucurella form the defense. Cucurella will make his first start of his Real Madrid career. B. Silva and Valverde partner in midfield, with Bellingham, Vinícius and Mbappé leading the attack. This starting XI is worth as much as €1 billion, while Real Sociedad’s entire squad is worth only €240 million.
A “depleted” Real Madrid are still the strongest Real Madrid—the real information gap is that the club’s new signings are rapidly building chemistry, while the opponent is completely unprepared for it.
III. Real Sociedad are not pushovers, but the “historical curse” is too decisive
Real Sociedad lost 0-1 away to Betis in the opening round, but that is not the key point. The key point is that they are also struggling with injuries—their starting right-back Odriozola is out with a torn cruciate ligament, while starting defensive midfielder Grocautegui is also sidelined.
More importantly, the historical data: Real Madrid have won all of their last 5 La Liga meetings with Real Sociedad, and have beaten them in 7 consecutive matches at the Bernabéu. Their last home defeat dates back to 2018. Last season, Real Madrid completed a league double over Real Sociedad, scoring 6 goals across the two matches. Mourinho has faced Real Sociedad 8 times in his career, recording 6 wins and 2 draws without a single defeat. This “bloodline suppression” is not superstition, but genuine tactical dominance. Real Sociedad’s new manager Matarazzo is facing Real Madrid for the first time, and the gap in matchday experience is obvious.
IV. Today’s football analysis: The three key information gaps shaping this match are stacking up: Mourinho’s desire to win in his return debut + Real Madrid’s “depleted lineup” actually overwhelming the opponent in squad value + absolute dominance in the historical head-to-head record.
The market has underestimated both Real Madrid’s motivation and strength in this match. At the Bernabéu tonight, Real Madrid are expected to celebrate Mourinho’s return with a resounding victory. Players wearing numbers 30 and 31 are favored.