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Over the past few months, BTC rose from $60k to $80k, yet MSTR, the world's largest publicly known holder, has been quietly reducing its holdings. Based on past experience, how bearish should this have been? But the market completely ignored it: spot ETFs saw $1.92 billion in net inflows over one week, swallowing up every bit Saylor sold.
This shows one thing: BTC's pricing power has changed hands. It is no longer something that any single whale or institution can control.
Look at MSTR's current situation: its stock is down more than 60% year to date and nearly 80% from its 2024 high. The market had long treated MSTR as a leveraged BTC ETF, but that pricing model has now broken down. Everyone has begun reassessing the company—it is becoming a “Bitcoin bank.”
What banks play with is the spread between assets and liabilities. Saylor is no longer focused on how many coins he can accumulate; what he talks about every day now is “BTC yield per share.” By dynamically adjusting its cash, preferred shares, and BTC holdings, he is attempting an extremely difficult balancing act.
In June, its preferred stock STRC plunged to $70 at one point, with the market betting that he was about to blow up. Now the stock has recovered to more than $97, and the alarm has been temporarily lifted.
However, this path remains extremely dangerous. The $1.76 billion in annual interest and dividends is unavoidable, and as long as BTC falls below the cost basis, his pressure will increase exponentially.
Saylor is now holding $6.7 billion in cash without deploying it. What is he waiting for? Does he think $80k is too expensive, or is he preparing for a major macro black swan event?