#英伟达财报周 Don't expect too much from NVDA's earnings report!

There's no need to get overly excited about NVDA's earnings report. Even if NVDA beats expectations, the stock could still open higher and then fall, or simply open lower; the pressure on the 2nd–5th trading days after earnings is often greater than on the first day.
Over the past 7 earnings reports, NVDA's one-week gain rate was only 14.3%, with an average decline of 4.57%. After the most recent four earnings reports, NVDA fell an average of 2.79% the next day and 4.84% over one week; this shows that NVDA has clearly entered a phase where good earnings do not necessarily mean a rising stock price.
The market is not trading on whether results exceed consensus expectations, but on whether the size of the beat can clear the higher bar already set before the earnings report.
NVDA's earnings trading usually unfolds in four steps:
① Cloud providers increase capital expenditures;
② Analysts raise revenue estimates and price targets;
③ Funds buy in ahead of the earnings report;
④ After the earnings are released, they take profits even if the results beat expectations.
That's why we often see NVDA fall after earnings. In many cases, this is not because the fundamentals have deteriorated, but because the earlier rally had already priced in the results. What the market is truly comparing is not whether the company beat consensus expectations, but whether it exceeded the higher “whisper number.”
For example, consensus expectations might be $90 billion, but funds may have already bet on revenue of $95 billion or even higher. If the company ultimately reports $93 billion, the financial data is still very strong, yet the stock price may fall. This is also why NVDA often sees earnings beat expectations, record-high guidance, and analysts raising price targets, while the stock still falls the next day. The earnings report proves that there is nothing wrong with the company, but it does not provide enough new information for funds to keep chasing the stock higher.
The options market is currently pricing in a move of approximately plus or minus 5.4%, corresponding to about $280 billion in market-cap volatility, below the 7.4% average realized volatility of the past 12 earnings reports. More than 70% of Stocktwits voters are still betting on “beat and raise,” but overall sentiment has only recovered from pessimistic to neutral. This suggests that many people are verbally bullish but are actively reducing risk in their positions ahead of the earnings report.
Bulls are mainly betting on three things:
1. Rubin shipments go smoothly in the fall and data-center revenue continues to grow rapidly;
2. Q3 guidance exceeds the market's high-end expectations;
3. After seven consecutive trading-day declines, the negative factors have already been priced in.
Bears, meanwhile, are mainly questioning whether AI projects are increasingly dependent on NVIDIA's participation in financing or the provision of guarantees, with the quality of demand coming under discussion; whether rising HBM and DRAM prices could compress gross margins; and whether an average decline of about 5% in the stock after the most recent four earnings reports means that simply “beating expectations” is no longer enough.
For more than the past year, NVDA has continued to fluctuate around $200, essentially reflecting a balance between two forces. On the downside, there is fundamental support: earnings are still growing rapidly; free cash flow is substantial; no clear turning point has emerged in AI capital expenditures; and every time the stock falls into a relatively undervalued range, long-term funds buy back in.
On the upside, there is valuation pressure: the market is concerned about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures; cloud providers are beginning to use more TPUs, Trainium, and proprietary ASICs; rising storage, power, and financing costs are beginning to erode the returns of AI projects; NVDA's market cap is too large, requiring much greater incremental capital to break through; and higher server prices could squeeze customers' profits rather than fully representing demand growth.
Therefore, buyers will purchase the stock below $190 based on future earnings, while above $220–$235, the market will once again demand higher revenue and guidance. The result is ultimately a high-level trading range rather than a continuous decline.
After this earnings report, the situation will most likely remain the same. Put bluntly, there is little money-making potential, and if you hold NVDA, you may not make money over the long term.$NVDA ‌