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Goldman Sachs vs. HSBC vs. BofA — Institutions’ Long-Short Battle
Every time before Nvidia’s earnings report, the disagreements among Wall Street institutions are particularly interesting. This time is no exception.
Let’s start with the most optimistic. HSBC Research raised its price target directly from $325 to $360, maintaining a Buy rating. Their logic is that Q2 results will once again exceed expectations and guidance will be raised, memory-driven price increases will boost fiscal 2028 earnings, and open-source small language models could open up new markets. HSBC also raised its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings-per-share forecasts by 5% and 10%, respectively.
Bank of America is also on the bullish side. Analyst Vivek Arya maintained a Buy rating with a $350 price target. He believes the market has overestimated the risks arising from $300 billion in Nvidia AI ecosystem investments—in plain terms, those scary news reports have been overinterpreted by the market. Based on his free cash flow model, Nvidia is undervalued by 34% to 50%.
Jefferies is even more bullish. It expects quarterly revenue in July to reach $95 billion, higher than the market consensus of $91.9 billion. Its forecast for October-quarter guidance is $108 billion, also above the market expectation of $103.7 billion. Jefferies also believes Rubin’s ramp-up will be significantly faster than Blackwell’s initial ramp-up, expecting more than 13,000 Rubin racks to be shipped by the end of 2026 and more than 120,000 in 2027.
UBS is also relatively optimistic, raising its Q2 EPS forecast from $2.09 to $2.13 and revenue forecast from $91.9 billion to $93.55 billion.
But Goldman Sachs’ stance is much more nuanced. Although Goldman also believes Nvidia’s Q2 results will be strong and that there is room for guidance to be raised, its price target is only $285, below the market average. Goldman’s logic is that strong results do not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. The stock has already risen 12% over the past two weeks, and the positive news has already been priced in. Goldman listed three conditions that must emerge for the stock price to rise: continued improvement in cloud providers’ profitability metrics, financing platforms remaining prudent, and continued large-scale buybacks and dividend payouts. If these three conditions are not met, the stock price could fall even if the earnings report looks strong.
Morgan Stanley is relatively conservative, forecasting Q2 revenue of $91.1 billion, Q3 revenue of $102.3 billion, and EPS of $2.07 and $2.34, respectively.
You can see that the most optimistic, Jefferies, expects $95 billion, while the most conservative, Morgan Stanley, expects $91.1 billion—the revenue forecasts alone differ by nearly $4 billion. Wall Street’s average price target is around $302, about 40% above the current stock price. But Goldman Sachs gives it only $285. That gap is where the market’s disagreement lies.

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