#Gate股票观点挑战 +$SNDK ‌

On August 24, SNDK fell more than 11% intraday before ultimately closing down about 9%. Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital all followed lower by more than 4%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 2%. This was not an isolated event for SNDK, but an industry-wide resonance adjustment.

There were three direct triggers for the decline: first, Samsung’s shareholder return plan was “below expectations,” with its third-quarter dividend falling short of expectations and no stock buyback announced, sending disappointment from Asia to U.S. stocks; second, weekend media reports said the Trump administration might allow Apple to purchase chips from CXMT and YMTC, triggering concerns about supply-chain substitution; third, on the eve of NVIDIA’s earnings report, funds were pulled from high-beta technology stocks.

But the deeper reasons are more concerning. SanDisk’s gains during the year had reached about 500% at one point, making it the most speculative part of this storage bull market, so the pullback was naturally magnified. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell only 2%, indicating that selling pressure was concentrated in the storage chain rather than across the entire sector, as the market selectively cleared positions that had risen too sharply earlier.

The fundamental narrative has not yet broken down. Lynx Equity Research believes that the actual threat posed by Chinese memory chips to Apple is “far smaller than media headlines suggest”—CXMT has only passed certification for one low-volume Mac SKU, has zero iPhone certifications, and suffers from low LPDDR5X yields, making it structurally unable to supply at scale; YMTC has not yet passed certification for any Apple product. Institutions including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan still maintain “buy” ratings. Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year, while data center revenue surged 437%.

However, cyclical concerns are accumulating. Industry participants say that after long-term supply agreements were implemented, downstream customers’ panic over continued shortages has eased significantly, their willingness to stockpile proactively has continued to decline, and bargaining and price-cutting efforts have increased. “Price backlash” has already emerged in the PC and smartphone segments, with manufacturers forced to raise finished-device prices as memory costs climb.

My view: This is a healthy correction, but bottom-fishing requires caution. The storage sector has seen several sharp swings over the past two months—after SanDisk and Micron fell more than 10% in a single day in late June, they quickly rebounded in early July. High volatility itself is now the norm in storage trading. I will not enter blindly after the initial plunge. The key indicators to watch are whether prices can stabilize near support levels and whether buyers enter the market. If the rebound lacks strength and prices continue to break lower, it means the market has not finished flushing out positions.

SNDK may be an opportunity, but for now it looks more like “the waiting station is near” than “the final stop has arrived.”