Many people are asking whether the bear market is over. I tend to think the hardest part of this downturn is already behind us.

People are used to looking at BTC’s price in U.S. dollars, but the real bellwether is the BTC/gold ratio. It is much more sensitive than the dollar price.

Looking back at the previous cycle, BTC against gold peaked in December 2024, but its dollar price held on until October 2025 to peak—nearly a full year later. This explains why, although prices were rising at the time, it felt particularly hollow.

This time, a similar time lag has appeared in the bottom signals. BTC against gold bottomed in February 2026, while its dollar price did not truly stabilize until July—a five-month gap. This is a leading indicator of improving liquidity.

The current situation is that BTC has completed a forceful breakout against both the U.S. dollar and gold. Although there may be a pullback afterward, it will most likely be an opportunity to get in. Looking ahead 12 to 18 months, this will probably be the most spectacular bull run we have ever seen.

There are two major macro backdrops here that cannot be ignored.

One is the long-term trend of a weakening dollar. Anyone who has looked at the DXY chart knows what I mean. Historically, BTC has never encountered such a favorable environment of prolonged dollar weakness. The other is the “age of abundance” brought about by AI. Software, knowledge, and even intelligence are all becoming cheap and ubiquitous. In this environment, capital will frantically seek out scarce assets that cannot be replicated by technology.

Gold has thousands of years of history, but BTC also has a global 24/7 settlement network and absolute scarcity. When BTC starts outperforming gold, it means new capital is choosing the “fastest horse.”