#Gate股票观点挑战 ➕Tokyo Electron

Among the initial candidates, if I had to choose one with “potential,” I personally would be more inclined to focus on Tokyo Electron (Tokyo Electron, 8035.P) rather than more traditional names such as Toyota and Nintendo. The rationale and risks are explained below.

I. Why Tokyo Electron (8035.P)
It is one of the world’s three major semiconductor equipment manufacturers, alongside the Netherlands’ ASML and the United States’ Applied Materials, primarily supplying TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and others with core process equipment such as coaters/developers, etchers, and CVD equipment. There are three reasons to be bullish:
1 , A direct beneficiary of the AI/semiconductor supercycle
Combined net profit at companies listed on Japan’s Prime Market rose 68% year on year in the latest quarter (April–June). The combined net profit of six semiconductor companies—Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, SCREEN, and Kokusai Electric—surged more than threefold to ¥1.23 trillion, already approaching Toyota’s level.
Tokyo Electron’s revenue for Q1 of fiscal 2027 has already been revised upward. Management expects the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market to exceed $150 billion in 2026 and $190 billion in 2027, with the market growing by more than 20% annually driven by demand from AI data centers.
2 , Strong order visibility and earnings guidance The company’s revenue guidance for the second half is up 33% year on year, while operating profit guidance is up 42%; its operating margin is recovering from 25.6% to 27.5%. It has also raised its dividend and announced share buybacks and cancellations, putting it in a dual positive phase of “accelerating earnings + shareholder returns.” 3. Valuation is relatively reasonable after a recent pullback from highs
Affected by the global AI computing “deleveraging” sell-off at the end of July, Tokyo Electron fell sharply from its 52-week high of ¥81,260. Its latest price is around ¥55,000–¥56k, with a P/E of approximately 41x (forward P/E of approximately 33x).
Against the backdrop of being a leader in AI semiconductor equipment, this valuation does not represent an extreme bubble. The average 12-month target price from 18 analysts is approximately ¥74,000+, leaving room for upside from the current price, with the overall rating being “Buy.”

II. Three risks
Sharp volatility at high levels: The Nikkei has risen from 50k points at the start of the year to above 70k points, while AI semiconductor heavyweight stocks have recently experienced multiple sharp single-day pullbacks of 5%–10% (including a drop of more than 3% in a single day at the end of July). These types of stocks have very high volatility.
Dependence on China-region revenue: More than 90% of Tokyo Electron’s revenue comes from overseas. Cooling capital expenditure in the Chinese market and U.S.–China export controls are key medium-term variables; tighter controls would directly affect demand.
Characteristics of Japanese stock accounts: Gate’s Japanese stock service supports only buying and selling, not securities lending or short selling. Prices and profits/losses are displayed in JPY and settled in USDT, creating foreign-exchange conversion costs. Japanese stocks can only be traded during market hours in Japan, 09:00–11:30 and 12:30–15:25, not 24 hours a day.

III. Investment approach
Japanese stocks themselves are highly volatile, and Gate does not support short selling. If you want to allocate funds, it is advisable not to invest fully all at once. You can start by observing with a small position, or consider:
Prefer stable high dividends → Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.P), a large-cap bank stock
Prefer growth with greater certainty → Tokyo Electron (8035.P), semiconductor equipment
Prefer consumer/entertainment content → Sony (6758.P) or Nintendo (7974.P).