Depleted Squads Face Off; Atlético Madrid Cannot Count on an Easy Home Win

In the opening match of the 2026/27 La Liga season, Atlético Madrid will host Málaga at the Metropolitano Stadium, with Málaga returning to La Liga after an eight-year absence. On the surface, it appears to be a clear mismatch—Atlético’s squad is valued at nearly €700 million, compared with less than €40 million for Málaga—but a closer look at both teams’ pre-match situations reveals a far more complicated contest than expected.

Atlético’s problems are in attack. Simeone confirmed before the match that Argentine forward Julián Álvarez will miss out after returning too late from the World Cup final and failing to reach the required level of fitness. Forward Sørloth is also unavailable with a muscle injury. More troublingly, new signing Lee Kang-in has been delayed by military service approval, while Romero has attended only one training session since joining, raising concerns about attacking cohesion. Atlético won just two of four preseason friendlies, losing to both Manchester United and Manchester City, exposing their lack of attacking integration.

Málaga face problems across the board. Before the match, the newly promoted side was hit by a devastating injury crisis: starting center-back Calero has fractured a rib, Murillo is recovering from a knee injury, key player in midfield and defense Dotor is unavailable, and forward Niño is also absent. Starting goalkeeper Ochoa is suspended as well. The club made virtually no investment in transfers over the summer, signing only Cruz on loan, leaving the squad weaker rather than stronger. Málaga scored 12 goals but conceded 11 in five preseason friendlies, keeping no clean sheets.

The historical head-to-head record is completely one-sided. In 72 meetings, Atlético have won 40, including the last five encounters, and kept clean sheets in four of them. Málaga’s last away victory over Atlético came in 2016. This psychological advantage cannot be overlooked.

The likely flow of the match is clear: Atlético will control possession, press high, and sustain pressure, but their shortage of forwards and the new signings’ lack of cohesion mean they will struggle to produce a convincing big win. Málaga will field a depleted lineup and defend deep with all lines, making it most realistic to focus on keeping the margin of defeat as small as possible.

Overall, a narrow home win for Atlético is the most likely outcome, but expecting a big victory is unrealistic. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 or 1-0, with Málaga likely to keep the margin of defeat relatively small.
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