#币圈人回归原生家庭 Qixi Festival has just ended, and Bitcoin suddenly stormed back to $70k: some are showing off their romance, while others have started showing off their gains

Yesterday was Qixi Festival, and social media was lively. Some people showed off roses, some showed off red envelopes, some showed off dinner, while others quietly spent the day on their own. Qixi in the crypto world is a little different. While many people were still eating dinner or watching movies, BTC suddenly started climbing, surging from around $64k toward $70k.
While others received roses for Qixi, some crypto people received a big bullish candle.
X was just as lively. Some people showed how much they had earned on their long positions and finally escaped losses, while others started recalculating how much the BTC they held was worth. Of course, some people received not a Qixi gift last night, but a forced-liquidation notice from an exchange. On the same night, some people laughed and others cried. That's the crypto world.

First, why did BTC suddenly surge back to $70k?
This rise did not happen for no reason. The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of its long-term Treasury buybacks, changing market expectations for liquidity. U.S. Treasury yields fell, pressure on risk assets eased somewhat, and Bitcoin also reacted significantly. For BTC, the macro environment has always been important. In particular, factors such as the dollar, interest rates, and Treasury yields often directly affect whether capital is willing to move into risk assets.
Another very direct reason is that the shorts were blown out. During this rally, the crypto market saw billion-dollar-scale short liquidations. A large number of people shorting BTC were forced to close their positions, and closing a short position itself means buying BTC back. When the price began to rise, the first batch of shorts was forced to buy back BTC. As the price continued upward, more shorts could not hold on, creating a self-reinforcing process.
So in last night's move, there were both funds buying voluntarily and a group of people being forced by the market to buy.

ETF funds are also beginning to show some movement
Another change that cannot be ignored is the improvement in fund flows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs had previously experienced a clear period of outflows, but after entering August, funds began flowing back in. Relevant data showed that weekly net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs had reached several hundred million dollars, marking one of their better performances in several months.
This is no longer quite the same as the crypto world of several years ago.
Today, BTC buying is not just old crypto players trading among themselves. ETFs, institutional funds, and the asset allocations of publicly listed companies have all become part of the market. So when Bitcoin sees a rally of this magnitude, it is not enough to look only at who is buying on exchanges such as bn and OK; we also need to see whether traditional capital is coming in as well.
If ETFs continue to see net inflows and spot-market trading volume gradually expands, the foundation of this rally will be much more solid than a move driven solely by short covering.

$70k has arrived, but it is still too early to rush to call it a bull market
Many people may not like hearing this, but it still needs to be said. BTC returning to $70k is certainly worth watching, but $70k is merely a price threshold, not a pass declaring that a “bull market has begun.”
What matters next is whether BTC can hold this level. If it quickly falls back to the low-$60ks after reaching $70k, that would indicate that short-term funds and short covering accounted for a large part of this rise. If it can gradually stabilize above $70k while ETFs continue to receive inflows, spot trading volume catches up, and more new buying emerges in the market, the situation will be completely different.
First, let us see whether $70k can gradually change from a resistance level into a price at which people are willing to buy.

Where exactly is BTC now?
In one simple sentence: the market has just opened a window in a room that has been stuffy for a long time, but it is not yet clear whether the door is about to open to welcome guests.
The sideways trading in the low-$60ks had already tested many people's patience. This sudden return to $70k has at least drawn the market's attention back. If funds continue to follow and BTC can hold around $70k, market sentiment may gradually change; if it falls again after surging, everyone will still have to keep waiting.

Yesterday was Qixi Festival. Some people received roses, some received red envelopes, and crypto people received screenshots of their profits. As for whether this big bullish candle will ultimately become the beginning of the next market cycle, no one can provide an answer right now.
But at least one thing is interesting: just a few days ago, everyone was discussing whether BTC would continue to fall, while today they have already begun discussing when it will surge back above $80k.
The market is simply this realistic.
When prices fall, everyone thinks they are highly rational; once prices rise, everyone suddenly thinks they are value investors.
So Qixi Festival is over, and the flowers are gradually withering.
If BTC can continue moving upward, that will be the story to come next.$BTC ‌