#我的七夕交易分享 SpaceX Valuation Faces More Questions? Tech Analyst: Worth Only $10 to $30!

Scott Galloway, a New York University professor, tech analyst, and bestselling author for The New York Times, said recently that SpaceX shares are trading far above their proper value, and even a sharp decline from their peak has not made them an attractive investment.
In a podcast released Monday, he said SpaceX shares were worth between $10 and $30. As of the close of U.S. trading Tuesday, the stock fell 1.98% to $143.34. “This stock is still overvalued,” Galloway said. “I think this stock should be worth between $10 and $30.”
His highest valuation implies that the stock’s current trading price is nearly five times what he believes it is worth; his lowest valuation implies that the shares are worth approximately 7% of their current market price.
SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 per share, valuing Elon Musk’s rocket company at approximately $1.8 trillion. The stock subsequently climbed as high as $225 before falling about 45% to $123. It later recovered slightly and traded above its IPO price over the past week.
Galloway pointed out that SpaceX’s valuation has been driven in part by extremely favorable market conditions.
On the one hand, only 4%‑5% of SpaceX’s shares are available for public trading, leaving a very limited supply of tradable shares;
On the other hand, the company’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index has also driven allocation demand from index-tracking funds.
“Musk will go down in history as one of the most outstanding engineers of our time, but he is also a financial mastermind,” Galloway said on the program. He also questioned the market’s view of SpaceX’s core identity as a rocket and satellite company. Less than two weeks after going public, SpaceX launched a $25 billion bond issuance plan, while the company had previously disclosed cash and cash equivalents totaling as much as $100.8 billion. The company said the proceeds would primarily be used to repay a bridge loan.
In Galloway’s view, the bond issuance reflects the fact that investors are actually betting on the AI infrastructure sector associated with SpaceX’s launch business, while the company’s future business expansion will increasingly rely on debt instruments. Galloway is not the only one bearish on the stock’s future performance. Hedge fund manager and former Fidelity fund manager George Noble previously said bluntly that SpaceX and Tesla were “the two most attractive companies in the market to short.” Noble previously predicted that SpaceX’s stock could fall 50% by year-end, and he also criticized the arrangement to rapidly include the company in the Nasdaq 100 Index. “Ordinary people’s 401(k) retirement accounts now hold a company with a market capitalization of $2 trillion, approximately 90 times its revenue. This is completely detached from reality,” he said. Noble believes that the fair stock price for both SpaceX and Tesla should be around $30 per share. He said that the companies’ inflated valuations, social media hype, and a steadily deteriorating macro environment make them extremely attractive short targets.
Despite his negative view of the valuation, Galloway would not choose to short SpaceX. He believes Musk has a large number of loyal supporters and is skilled at igniting investor enthusiasm with entirely new projects, which could easily drive the stock higher, detached from the company’s real fundamentals. “I’m not going to touch this stock,” Galloway said. He added that if Musk announced another grand vision, such as a “lunar quantum computing” project, the stock could once again become a market hot spot and surge dramatically. $SPCX ‌