#Gate股票观点挑战 +$UNITREE

‌I. Unitree Robotics' Performance on Its First Trading Day: High Sentiment, Lofty Valuation

Unitree Robotics (688836.SH) officially listed on the STAR Market on August 19, 2026, at an issue price of 150.80 yuan/share. On its first trading day, it opened at 1,100 yuan/share, surging 629.44%, with its total market capitalization briefly soaring to 444.9 billion yuan; it closed at 845 yuan/share, up 460.34%, with a total market capitalization of approximately 341.8 billion yuan.

Its dynamic P/E ratio reached as high as 811 times, far exceeding the industry average—the static P/E ratio of the general equipment manufacturing industry to which Unitree belongs was only 38.56 times, while comparable Hong Kong-listed company UBTECH's was approximately 19.37 times.

II. Fundamentals: High Growth Coexisting with Slowing Growth

Explosive growth over the past two years: In 2025, revenue reached 1.7B yuan, up 332.64% year-on-year; non-recurring-item-excluded net profit attributable to the parent reached 591 million yuan, up 652.78% year-on-year. Humanoid robot sales surged from 5 units in 2023 to 5,215 units, generating revenue of 868 million yuan, with the gross margin remaining at 63%. Global humanoid robot shipments totaled approximately 16.6k units in 2025, and Unitree ranked first worldwide with 5,511 units, capturing more than 30% of the market.

Growth slowed significantly in 2026: First-quarter revenue was 423 million yuan, up 68.49% year-on-year, but non-recurring-item-excluded net profit fell 52.55% year-on-year. Revenue for the first half of the year is expected to reach 16.6k to 1.05B yuan, with growth slowing to 35.62%-45.41%.

III. Core Investment Logic

1. Cost Barriers from Full-Stack In-House R&D

Unitree conducts extensive in-house R&D on key hardware such as motors, reducers, drivers, and encoders. Outsourced components account for only 10%-20% of total costs, while externally purchased costs account for just 14%-18%. The gross margin of its main business was approximately 60% in 2025, while the gross margin of its humanoid robots reached 63.2%.

2. Establishment of an Industry "Valuation Anchor"

As the A-share market's "first humanoid robotics stock," Unitree's listing established a public pricing benchmark for the entire embodied intelligence industry. Its issue price corresponds to PS ratios of approximately 36 times and 20 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared with average 2025/2026E PS ratios of approximately 17 and 11 times for comparable companies. This represents a certain premium but is also viewed as scarcity-based pricing.

3. Early Discounting of Long-Term Growth Potential

Nomura Securities initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating, forecasting revenue of 1.13B, 2.69B, and 5.4B yuan in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing a compound growth rate of 122%. Guoxin Securities pointed out that the core assumption implied by a P/E ratio of 219 times is that the market is not buying 2026 earnings, but rather discounting in advance the future trillion-yuan-level market for humanoid robots.

IV. Risks That Require Attention

Valuation overhang risk: An 811-times dynamic P/E ratio means that the share price already incorporates extremely optimistic expectations for the future. Once market sentiment cools or performance falls short of expectations, the pressure for a correction will be enormous.

Continued slowdown in earnings growth: Revenue growth is expected to plunge from 332% in 2025 to only 35%-45% in the first half of 2026. Non-recurring-item-excluded net profit plunged by more than 52% year-on-year in the first quarter.

Uncertainty over commercial adoption: Current demand is still primarily driven by research, education, entertainment, and government procurement, while industrial and commercial applications remain limited. The key variable for the robotics industry is whether application scenarios can truly be implemented.

"Brain" capabilities remain to be validated: Nearly half of the proceeds raised will be invested in embodied large model R&D, but whether the transition from a hardware leader to an integrated "hardware + algorithms" platform can succeed remains unknown.

Unitree Robotics is a humanoid robotics leader with significant advantages in hardware engineering, cost control, and mass production capabilities, but its current valuation has fully—even excessively—priced in expectations for high growth over the coming years. For investors bullish on the long-term embodied intelligence sector, the key question is whether the company can continue delivering growth far exceeding the industry average while its valuation is digested, and upgrade from a hardware manufacturer into an integrated platform enterprise combining "brains + data + hardware."