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BTCUSDT Analysis: When Will the Downtrend End?

Date: August 18, 2026, price ~ $64,707.
Three timeframes were examined: 4-hour, 1-day, and 1-week. Below are objective indicator data and a calculation of the probable timeframe for a trend reversal.

1. 4-hour chart (local momentum)

· All EMAs (5, 10, 20, 60, 200) are below the current price.
· MACD = 156.7, DIF (329.5) above DEA (166.8) – upward momentum is active.
· RSI(6) = 74.4 (overbought zone), but RSI(12) and RSI(24) are lower – overheating is not confirmed.
· The price is near the upper Bollinger Band (UB = 64,935.8), with no breakout yet.

Conclusion: the local trend is bullish, but a short-term correction to 64,000–63,900 is likely.

2. Daily chart (medium-term outlook)

· EMA5 (63,991) and EMA10 (63,875) are below the price – a short-term rise.
· However, EMA20 (63,919), EMA60 (64,666), and EMA200 (71,528) are above the price. EMA200 in particular is $10,800 higher.
· MACD is almost zero (25.3), DIF equals DEA (6.4) – momentum is absent.
· RSI(6)=68.0 is approaching overbought territory, but RSI(12)=57.0 and RSI(24)=51.5 are neutral.
· The price is between the middle (63,885) and upper (65,373) Bollinger Bands.

Conclusion: a rebound within a correction. A trend reversal requires consolidation above EMA60 (64,666), followed by a test of EMA200 (71,528).

3. Weekly chart (global trend)

· All EMAs – from 5 to 200 – are above the current price.
· EMA5 = 64,212 (close), EMA10 = 65,041 (slightly higher), EMA20 = 68,049, EMA60 = 78,088, EMA200 = 68,379.
· The price has not even reached the middle Bollinger Band (MB = 68,857).
· MACD (556.8) is positive, but DIF (464.3) is below DEA (517.9) – a bearish crossover.
· RSI(6)=47.1, RSI(12)=47.2, RSI(24)=41.9 – all below 50, indicating buyer weakness.
· OBV is negative – capital outflows persist.

Conclusion: the global trend remains downward. A transition into a bullish phase requires breakouts of the 68,000 and 78,000 levels.

When is a reversal possible?

Objective criteria for the end of the downtrend on the weekly timeframe:

1. A weekly close above EMA200 (currently $68,379).
2. DIF crossing above DEA on MACD (current difference: DIF – DEA = 464.3 – 517.9 = –53.6 points).
3. A sustained rise in RSI(24) above 50, followed by a rise above 60.

Time calculation

· Over the past week, the price rose by approximately 1.5% (from ~63,800 to ~64,700).
· Approximately 5.7% remains to the 68,379 level. If the 1.5% weekly pace is maintained, it will take about 3.8 weeks (until approximately September 15).
· The MACD difference is narrowing slowly: by approximately 10 points per week. At this pace, the crossover will occur in 5–6 weeks (late September–early October).

However, a slowdown is noticeable on the daily chart: MACD is at zero, and RSI(6) is overheated. A local correction to 63,900–64,000 is likely, which would delay the timeframe by 1–2 weeks.

Final forecast

If the current momentum persists and there are no external shocks, the technical conditions for confirming a reversal (a weekly close above 68,400 + a bullish MACD crossover) may be met between September 20 and October 5, 2026.

Summary

· The timeframes are not synchronized: 4H – bullish, 1D – neutral-to-bullish, 1W – bearish.
· A full exit from the downtrend will occur only after breakouts of the 68,000 and 78,000 levels on the weekly chart.
· For now, this is a corrective phase. The market remains in a zone of uncertainty, and key indicators on the higher timeframes have not yet confirmed a change in the global trend.

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