After SpaceX’s 40% Surge, the Real Test Has Just Begun: Is $150 the Finish Line or Just Halftime?

SpaceX’s recent stock price rebound has reignited the market’s imagination. From a low of around $104.83 in early August to a recent return to around $140, the stock has gained more than 30% over this period and is drawing increasingly close to the key level around $150
But looking at a slightly longer timeframe, this is still a highly volatile valuation battle.
After SpaceX went public, its stock price surged to around $225 at one point, then fell below the $135 IPO price, bottoming near $105 before rebounding rapidly again. This “roller-coaster” movement shows that the market’s pricing of SpaceX is still far from stable.
The bulls currently have several reasons.
First, second-quarter revenue was $7.81 billion, above market expectations; second, the first large-scale lock-up expiration did not trigger the panic selling the market had previously feared; third, short covering and improved liquidity further drove the stock price higher.
With these factors combined, the $135 IPO price has gradually shifted from a “resistance level” to a new psychological support reference.
But don’t forget that SpaceX still has more lock-up expirations ahead.
Market information shows that multiple additional batches of shares will enter circulation, with new lock-up pressure emerging around August 20, followed by further share releases in September and October.
This means SpaceX may next enter a very interesting phase: fundamentals tell the story, capital flows focus on share supply, and technicals watch key price levels—the three forces taking turns grabbing the microphone.
If the stock can stabilize above $140 and then decisively break through $150, the market may continue seeking higher valuation anchors; conversely, if it falls back below $135 under lock-up pressure, market sentiment could weaken again.
Therefore, a “40% rebound” deserves attention, but should not be directly equated with “another 40% gain ahead.”
What investors fear most is not missing a rally, but forgetting they did not buy a parachute after watching the rocket launch.
SpaceX can continue its sprint, but what investors need to focus on more is this: after the next ignition, how much fuel will be left.
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