#我的七夕交易分享 AI demand is reshaping the value proposition of every layer of the supply chain, but the pace and certainty vary greatly across layers.

In the short term, consumer NAND is range-bound while enterprise NAND continues to rise, with Kioxia allocating 60% to 70% of its capacity to enterprise products. Memory modules have risen to the point where eight 64GB sticks cost nearly as much as an entire server, while shipments of enterprise rack servers are shrinking. Supernodes will comprise 7,000 racks in 2026, with mass production starting in October; a full rack with 64 cards costs 10 million to 11 million. Indium phosphide will face a clear shortage in 2026, red phosphorus has tripled in price, and MOCVD lead times have reached 15 to 20 months. Meta will have 7GW of computing power by year-end, and the Personal Super Intelligence Agent may be released in September. Toyota weaving machines have a 1.5-year lead time, the electronic fabric shortfall is one-third, and new kilns coming online in September will release monthly capacity of 4 million meters.
In the medium term, SanDisk has locked in $93 billion in revenue over three years with NBM; HBF will ship samples in 2027 and ramp up in 2028, with option value reaching as high as $330 billion. Meta will reach 16GW by the end of 2027, split evenly between training and inference. Supernodes will comprise 22,000 racks in 2027, with a penetration rate of 35% to 38%, and 224G backplane connectors will begin scaling up. Domestic AI chip demand will reach 4 million to 5 million units in 2027, but 7nm process capacity is the bottleneck. The risk of a consumer NAND shortage will rise in 2027; materials that cost 1 billion to purchase in the past will cost 16 billion. Indium phosphide supply will exceed demand in the second half of 2027, and prices may fall. The electronic fabric shortage will be initially alleviated by the end of June 2027, while the trajectory of low-end fabric will depend on whether domestic weaving machines can break through. Demand for high-end electronic fabric will increase severalfold from Q1 to Q2 2027, and the shortfall will persist.
In the long term, NAND will be revalued from a cyclical product into AI inference storage. HBF puts Flash into GPU packaging, with 8 to 16 times the capacity of HBM at one-fifth to one-eighth the price. The 2030 HBF TAM baseline is $47 billion. The inference market will flourish, diluting NVIDIA’s share. Domestic chips are entering the knockout stage. SanDisk’s base market capitalization of $100 billion is the floor, while successful HBF validation will open a second growth curve. The next phase will focus on four things: whether HBF samples receive validation from cloud providers in 2027; whether Meta announces the superintelligent Agent at Connect in September; whether indium phosphide supply can exceed demand as scheduled in Q4 2027; and whether domestic weaving machines can break through in 2026, which will determine the trajectory of electronic fabric in 2027. $SNDK