Five Weeks—Should You Open a Position Now?

Bitcoin’s price has been moving sideways near $63,000 for nearly five weeks. This type of market is the most exhausting—the price can neither rise nor fall, and all that happens each day is narrow fluctuations of a few dozen points, while trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Many people’s patience has been completely drained; they either end up opening positions and repeatedly getting stopped out, or give up entirely and stop following the market. This raises the question: after all this sideways movement, should you open a position now?

Let’s first take a look at what is happening in the market. Bitcoin has fallen since approaching its high of $93,000 in January 2026, and it is currently down about 31% from the peak. After dropping to a low of $58,600 in early June, it rebounded and formed a double-bottom structure, and is currently oscillating repeatedly between $62,500 and $65,000. On-chain data shows that the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for long-term holders fell for a period to its lowest level in this cycle, meaning that even strong Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss. At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin transferred by whales to exchanges has far exceeded the amount transferred by retail investors, indicating that large investors are preparing for potential selling. The macroeconomic situation is also unsettled—the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has reached 56%, and the CLARITY Act has been postponed until September. Taken together, these signals point to one conclusion: the market is waiting for a direction, but that direction has not yet emerged.

So where do the risks of opening a position now lie? If you open a long position at $63,000, the $64,500–$65,000 area represents the first resistance, while the $65,500–$66,000 area is a major supply zone. The available room is not large, but the stop-loss should be placed below $62,500, so the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable. If you open a short position, $62,500 represents important support, while $58,000 is the cycle low. The available room is also limited; if an upward breakout occurs, the short position will suffer significant losses. Opening a position in the absence of a trend is like driving in dense fog—not impossible, but the risks far outweigh the rewards.

So what should you do? My advice is either not to open a position or to enter with a small size. If you feel a strong urge to trade, you can use a very small position size, such as 1% to 2% of your total capital, to try a long position near the lower boundary of the range, or a short position near the upper boundary, while strictly adhering to a stop-loss. If you make a profit, treat it as extra spending money; if you take a loss, it will not affect the bigger picture. But the wisest course of action is to wait—wait for the price to break above $65,000 with rising trading volume, then retest and confirm that level before opening a long position; or wait for the price to fall below $62,500 and then rebound to retest and confirm that level before opening a short position. The trend matters more than the entry point, and certainty matters more than the rate of return. Before a clear signal appears, staying out of the market is not cowardice, but wisdom.
#我的七夕交易分享 $