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¥520/share! Unitree Robotics’ grey-market price soars 245%—who is playing this “off-exchange gamble”?

Unitree Robotics’ new shares have not officially listed yet, but the off-exchange market is already in an uproar.

According to China Brokerage News, multiple intermediaries are acquiring Unitree Robotics’ new shares through various channels. The highest quote has already reached ¥520/share, 245% higher than the ¥150.8 issue price. Some intermediaries are offering ¥410/share, showing a considerable divergence in pricing. Many winning subscribers can no longer sit still and have gone online to look for buyers, hoping to lock in their gains early.

The stock has not even rung the opening bell, yet trading is already bubbling beneath the surface. Who exactly is playing this “grey-market” game? Is it reliable?

I. What Is Grey-Market Trading? A “Grey Gamble” Before Listing

First, let’s clarify what “grey-market” trading actually is.

Put simply, grey-market trading is the private, off-exchange matching of buyers and sellers before a new stock officially lists. There is no exchange matching, no public market pricing, and transactions rely on intermediaries to connect the parties, private negotiations, and off-exchange settlement. Buyers are usually funds that are bullish on the new stock’s post-listing performance, while sellers are winning subscribers who hold shares but want to cash out early.

This used to be relatively common with new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The BSE has comparatively weak liquidity, and some investors worried they would not be able to sell at a good price on the first trading day, so they simply sold early on the grey market. But the trend has recently changed—grey-market trading is beginning to spread from BSE stocks to star shares on the STAR Market. Before ChangXin Technology listed, intermediaries were already repurchasing its new shares at high prices, offering ¥36/share against an issue price of only ¥8.66, a gain of more than 300%.

Unitree Robotics is one of the brightest stars in the current hard-tech sector. Its robotics concept and STAR Market halo have made it a “hot commodity” in the grey market. But frankly, the grey market is essentially an unregulated grey area without regulatory protection. Information is severely asymmetric between buyers and sellers, and the risks are far greater than the “high premium” visible on the surface.

II. ¥520 vs. ¥410: What Signals Are Hidden in the Divergent Quotes?

This round of grey-market quotes is intriguing: the high end is ¥520, while the low end is ¥410, a spread of more than ¥110.

What does this show? It shows that the market has not formed a unified expectation for Unitree Robotics’ performance after listing. Buyers offering ¥520 are betting that the stock can surge even higher on its first trading day; buyers offering ¥410 are relatively conservative, but still believe there is room for at least a doubling. Sellers—that is, winning subscribers—are also divided when faced with these two quotes: some think ¥520 is high enough and prefer to sell first; others are still waiting to see whether they can sell at an even higher price on the first trading day.

Consider this game structure. The grey-market price is not “fair value,” but an “emotional premium.” Buyers are willing to pay a high price not because they have calculated how much Unitree Robotics is worth, but because they are afraid they will not be able to acquire shares after the listing. Sellers are willing to sell early not because they are bearish, but because they want to avoid the uncertainty of the first trading day.

Put bluntly, the core logic of grey-market trading can be summed up in one sentence: buyers use a premium to purchase certainty, while sellers accept a discount in exchange for peace of mind. Both sides get what they need, while the intermediaries profit from the information gap.

III. The “Threefold Risk” of Grey-Market Trading: Winning Subscribers Should Not Focus Only on the Gain

Many people overlook one point: the premium in grey-market trading looks tempting, but there are plenty of traps as well.

The first risk is legal risk. Grey-market trading is not regulated by the exchange and has no standardized settlement process, so the legal validity of agreements signed by buyers and sellers is questionable. If something goes wrong, the cost of protecting one’s rights is high and the difficulty of providing evidence is substantial, while it is also difficult for regulators to intervene.

The second risk is counterparty default. Intermediaries collect shares off-exchange based on verbal promises or simple private agreements. If an intermediary disappears after obtaining a winning subscriber’s purchase eligibility, or if a buyer pays but does not receive the shares, cases in which both money and shares are lost have occurred. Looking for buyers or intermediaries online is essentially conducting a large transaction with a stranger. You have no way to verify the other party’s qualifications, creditworthiness, or financial strength.

The third risk is valuation risk. The grey-market price of ¥520 represents a 245% premium. This pricing has already priced in the market’s optimistic expectations for Unitree Robotics’ first-day gain. If the stock underperforms on its first trading day, buyers who took the shares on the grey market could be trapped immediately. Conversely, if the first-day gain far exceeds 245%, winning subscribers who sold early on the grey market will also have “sold too soon.” Frankly, the grey market is not an arbitrage tool that guarantees profits without losses, but a two-way gamble.

IV. From the BSE to the STAR Market: Why Has Grey-Market Trading “Upgraded”?

This matter is not so simple. The spread of grey-market trading from a niche practice involving BSE stocks to STAR Market star shares is driven by several factors.

The first driver is the “star-stock effect.” Stocks such as Unitree Robotics and ChangXin Technology come with a hard-tech halo, attracting high market attention and strong demand from funds. It has already become very difficult to win shares in primary-market subscriptions, while the secondary market raises concerns about being unable to buy after listing. The grey market has therefore become a channel for some funds to “get a head start.”

The second driver is arbitrage demand. The first-day performance of new STAR Market stocks has historically been highly volatile. Some funds specialize in arbitrage in the “primary-and-a-half market,” collecting shares cheaply on the grey market and selling them at a high price on the first trading day, profiting from the liquidity premium.

The third driver is the accelerated spread of information. Information about grey-market trading is spreading increasingly quickly on social media and investment forums. Winning subscribers can easily find buyers, and the efficiency of intermediary matching has also improved.

But from another perspective, the more popular grey-market trading becomes, the more it indicates gaps in the pricing mechanism of the formal market. If the rules for new-share subscriptions and first-day trading were more flexible, and if market liquidity were sufficiently abundant, demand for this grey area would naturally shrink.

A Note from the Little God of Wealth

Unitree Robotics’ grey-market price reaching ¥520 is essentially a capital game in which expectations are brought forward. Buyers are betting on the long-term narrative of the robotics sector, while sellers are seeking the short-term certainty of securing profits. Neither side is wrong, but both are taking on the risks the other side is unwilling to bear.

For ordinary investors, it is best to just watch grey-market trading and not jump in lightly. You do not have an intermediary’s information channels or an institution’s financial strength, and you cannot afford the cost of protecting your rights after a default. If you won shares, simply wait for the listing; if you did not, do not envy the grey market’s high premium—half of that premium reflects the discount for risk.

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