#我的七夕交易分享 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

BTC spot price is currently $63,500, in the lower half of the 24-hour range of $62,851-$64,006 ($649 from the bottom and $506 from the top), indicating a neutral-to-weak short-term bias. The futures premium is only $54.6, with a basis rate of approximately +0.09%, reflecting no clear long or short premium on the derivatives side, while holders' sentiment is aligned with the spot market. In terms of volume distribution, the 24-hour trading volume of 4,406 BTC is significantly below the level seen on major trend days, consistent with the end of a contracting triangle or the middle of a narrow consolidation. Precise data for PP (pivot point), R1/R2, S1/S2, POC (30-day high-volume trading zone), 50EMA, and 200SMA are currently unavailable, so exact confluence zones cannot be marked. However, based on the intraday high-low structure, 62,851-62,900 forms the first short-term support reference zone, while 64,006-64,100 is the first short-term resistance reference zone. Elevated long-term rates (30Y U.S. Treasury yield at 5.24%) are weighing on risk assets sensitive to holding costs. Technically, BTC lacks a macro catalyst to break above $64,000 unless crypto-specific positive news emerges independently of macro conditions, such as substantial ETF net inflows.
ETH gained +0.36% over 24 hours, outperforming BTC's +0.00%, and the ETH/BTC cross rate strengthened marginally. ETH reached a 24-hour high of $1,900 and a low of $1,864, with an intraday range of 1.90%, slightly larger than BTC's 1.80%, indicating greater volatility elasticity. Trading volume was 75,419 ETH, equivalent to approximately $142 million at ETH's current price, indicating relatively ample liquidity. The improvement in ETH ETF relative fund flows disclosed by DWF Labs (+3.19% inflows in July versus BTC's +0.34%) provides funding-side support for ETH's relative strength, marking a sharp contrast with institutions' general indifference in May. Altcoin season assessment: BTC dominance data is currently unavailable, so the overall strength of the altcoin market cannot be quantified. However, the combination of ETH's marginal strengthening and the Fear Index hovering at 29 looks more like "oversold large-cap altcoins tentatively recovering from a fear bottom" than the start of a broad altcoin season. Total altcoin market capitalization data is unavailable; altcoin activity will only increase significantly if the Fear Index rises above 40 and BTC dominance declines.

Short-term analysis (1-5 days)
Bullish factors:
①Strategy has clearly announced a schedule for resuming BTC accumulation, providing the market with an expectation anchor in the form of a "known buyer";
②The completion of Tether's audit eliminates systemic tail risks, while stronger USDT confidence benefits overall liquidity;
③If the improvement in ETH ETF fund flows continues, it could push ETH above $1,900;
④Cooling PPI means the market is no longer fully betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike, making the macro environment marginally more favorable.
Bearish factors: ①The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at the historically high level of 5.24%, keeping the opportunity cost of risk assets elevated;
②The Fear and Greed Index remains low at 29, and bullish sentiment has never fully ignited;
③BTC trading volume is only 4,406 coins, meaning any breakout in either direction could be false under extremely low volume;
④The SEC's delay of the tokenization innovation exemption has once again frustrated expectations for regulatory progress.
Projection: 64,006-64,100 is the first short-term resistance level. A valid breakout requires volume to expand above 8,000 BTC and the Fear Index to recover to 35+. If a high-volume breakout fails to materialize, the range will contract from a narrow oscillation (62,850-64,000) toward the middle, awaiting the next catalyst. Key catalysts over the next 1-5 days include sentiment spillover from U.S. AI/technology stocks, U.S. retail data, and any significant changes in ETF fund flows.
Medium-term analysis (1-3 months)
Policy window: The federal funds rate is 3.63% (2026-07-01). Cooling PPI means the market is no longer fully betting on a rate hike this year, while the 10Y breakeven inflation rate of 2.24% suggests that medium-term inflation expectations are moderate and controllable. Under the Waller framework, the key question is the steep curve between the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield at 4.38% and the 30Y yield at 5.24%, indicating market concerns over medium- to long-term fiscal deficits and supply pressures. This creates a dual constraint on the medium-term valuation of "zero-yield asset" Bitcoin: it benefits from the inflation-hedge narrative while remaining constrained by elevated real interest rates.
Data validation: Strategy's disclosed purchase of 175k BTC year to date validates that the medium-term narrative of "public companies continuing to accumulate" remains effective, but the sale of 7,000 BTC also reminds the market that such holders do not always buy and never sell under certain conditions. If the inflection-point signal in ETH ETF fund flows, which improved consecutively in June and July, receives further confirmation in August, ETH's medium-term outlook will improve significantly, potentially driving the ETH/BTC exchange-rate midpoint higher.
Institutional expectations: Tether's unqualified KPMG audit is a milestone from a compliance perspective, providing a strong argument for "self-regulation" in the stablecoin regulatory debate and helping reduce the probability of negative regulatory impacts on USDT over the medium term. The repeated delays to the SEC's tokenization exemption mean that medium-term uncertainty in the RWA sector remains high, and institutional participation may proceed more slowly than the market previously expected.
Long-term analysis (6-12 months)
Macro trend: The 30Y U.S. Treasury yield midpoint of 5.24% is a core force shaping the long-term valuation of cryptocurrencies. If this yield falls over the next 6-12 months due to fiscal consolidation or recession expectations, BTC's valuation ceiling will reopen; if it remains elevated, BTC may spend longer in the 63,000-70,000 range than optimists expect.
Structural changes:
①Strategy resuming accumulation and Tether completing a comprehensive audit point to a common trend: the crypto market's "institutional infrastructure" is gradually maturing, while compliance and deeper balance-sheet integration reduce the probability of a tail-risk collapse;
②The shift in ETH ETFs from being neglected to being favored, as shown by DWF Labs' data, suggests that institutional allocation is expanding from "BTC-only" to "multi-asset crypto allocation," which will systematically alter ETH's long-term supply-demand structure;
③China's quantum technology industrialization has entered its first IPO year (according to China Securities Journal), and together with the Ethereum Foundation's shift toward a post-quantum plan, this means that the development of quantum resistance in crypto infrastructure will receive more attention and investment over the long term.
Midpoint repricing: If incremental institutional allocation (ETFs + public companies + stablecoin compliance) forms a confluence over the next 6-12 months, BTC's medium-term valuation midpoint could rise from the current 63,000-65,000 region to 68,000-75,000; ETH may gain greater repricing elasticity due to the relative improvement in ETF flows, increasing the probability of outperforming BTC. The prerequisite, however, is that the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield does not rise further above 5.50%.$BTC ‌