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US Stocks Close: PPI Boost Ignites Bullish Enthusiasm, S&P Hits Another Record High

The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher on Thursday, with the market staging a broad-based rally after July PPI data "unexpectedly cooled." The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.13% to close at 53839.99; the S&P 500 led the gains, rising 0.65% to close at 7798.99, briefly breaking above the 7800 round-number mark intraday and setting a new closing record just one week after its previous record; the Nasdaq Composite posted an even stronger gain, rising 0.81% to 26803.03, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.15% to 30084.50, returning above 30000 for the first time since June 30. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell as low as 14.39 intraday, its lowest level this year. Market panic nearly evaporated, replaced by an almost "fearless" optimism.

By sector, seven of the S&P 500's 11 sectors rose while four fell. Communication services led with a 1.56% gain, followed by real estate, which rose 1.34%, indicating a clear recovery in demand for interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Notably, materials and energy fell 0.73% and 0.09%, respectively, in line with an over 2% plunge in international oil prices, with Brent crude closing at $87.07 per barrel and WTI at $81.25 per barrel. Semiconductor stocks were broadly stronger, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining 0.46%, while memory chips became the brightest stars across the market: SanDisk surged more than 13%, Western Digital rose nearly 10%, SK Hynix gained more than 8%, Micron Technology rose 7%, and Seagate Technology climbed nearly 6%, sending almost the entire memory industry chain soaring. Optical communications stocks also performed well, with Lumentum up more than 13% and Coherent up more than 8%. On the other hand, Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. came under renewed pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling more than 1.8%, JD.com down nearly 8%, Alibaba down more than 2%, and PDD down over 5%, showing that the divergence between Chinese and U.S. assets continues.

At the individual-stock level, most of the "Magnificent Seven" moved higher, led by Tesla with a gain of nearly 3.8%; Meta rose 2.74%, while Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia each gained approximately 1% to 0.5%. Amazon was the sole decliner, edging down 0.8%. Reddit surged as much as 10% after hours after it was announced that the company would join the S&P 500, replacing AvalonBay Communities. TimeWorked soared nearly 18% in a single session, while The Trade Desk rose nearly 8% and GoDaddy gained more than 9%. The breakout in these small- and mid-cap stocks reflected a broad expansion in market risk appetite. Applied Materials also performed well after hours, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $3.50 for the third quarter, above expectations, while its fourth-quarter guidance also exceeded market estimates and net sales jumped 25% year over year, further confirming strength in the semiconductor equipment sector. However, Tapestry plunged 15% on expectations of slower growth in the new fiscal year, while StubHub tumbled 16% as surging expenses eroded profits, reminding investors that fundamental divergence among individual stocks remains severe.

Technically, the S&P 500's break above 7800 is not merely a numerical milestone; it also means that the bulls have successfully overcome previous highs and resistance with the support of favorable macroeconomic conditions. The closing level of 7798.99 was just one step away from 7800. If the index can firmly hold above that round-number mark today, it would open up room for speculation about a move toward 8000. In the short term, attention should be paid to support around 7700, the previous-high congestion zone, and 7600, near the rising 20-day moving average. Resistance for the Dow above 53839 lies at the 54000 round-number mark, with support around 53500. The Nasdaq, at 26803, is nearing the psychological threshold of 27000; a breakout would put 27500 in direct focus, while 26500 is short-term support. The VIX's drop to 14.39, in a historically low range, shows on one hand that the market is extremely calm, but also carries the warning that "low volatility is often a precursor to a major shift." If macroeconomic data deteriorate more than expected, such a low level of volatility means hedging costs are extremely low and volatility could spike instantly. In addition, the auction yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries hit a 25-year high. This long-end interest-rate pressure poses a potential drag on growth-stock valuations and is a technical concern that cannot be ignored.

Looking ahead, the short-term bullish logic remains clear: July PPI rose 4.7% year over year and was unchanged month over month, both below expectations, directly reducing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September from elevated levels to 34.8%, while CME data showed a 65.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged. Interest-rate-sensitive technology, real estate, and communication sectors have gained some breathing room. However, Cleveland Fed President Hammack continues to maintain the hawkish position that "rates should be raised immediately," in sharp contrast with Goolsbee's dovish statement that inflation is expected to ease. The divide within the Federal Reserve means the policy path remains uncertain. Investors should next focus on the July retail sales data due on August 14: if consumer spending remains resilient, the soft-landing narrative will be further strengthened; if it cools significantly, it could trigger a new round of risk aversion. Meanwhile, continued momentum behind reports that Anthropic is expected to go public in October at a $2 trillion valuation could boost the AI sector while also creating pressure through capital diversion. Overall, U.S. stocks still have upward momentum in the short term, driven by easing inflation and expectations of rate cuts. But elevated 30-year Treasury yields, unresolved geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the tail risks implied by the VIX's extremely low level all remind investors that maintaining a clear head beneath the euphoria is crucial.

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