#我的七夕交易分享

U.S. July PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, below market expectations

Last night, the U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI) was released, rising 4.7% year-on-year, versus an estimate of 4.9% and a previous reading of 5.5%. U.S. July PPI was unchanged month-on-month, versus an estimated increase of 0.2%. The PPI data came in significantly below market expectations. The 4.7% year-on-year increase and unchanged month-on-month reading directly shattered the market’s previous strong expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates “higher for longer,” becoming a key turning point in the pricing of risk assets recently.

For the Bitcoin market, this unexpectedly cooling inflation data directly eased the selling pressure caused by rising interest rates: on the one hand, the weakening U.S. Dollar Index lowered the cost of holding dollar-denominated crypto assets. Bitcoin quickly held the key $63,000 support level after the data was released and remained in a narrow range near $64,000, while the previously accumulated bearish sentiment from the record net outflows from June ETFs was significantly repaired; on the other hand, the market’s repricing pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve standing pat in September to nearly 68%, with the window for a rate hike this year postponed to December. Leverage funds previously suppressed by high interest rates began gradually flowing back into the crypto derivatives market, and perpetual futures open interest, which had fallen to a three-year low, saw a slight recovery. The market is once again incorporating macro inflation data into its trading framework, ending the period of complete desensitization to Bitcoin.

For the U.S. stock market, the release of the inflation data directly fueled risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 0.87% that day, while the Nasdaq gained nearly 1%, with technology and growth stocks performing particularly well as Treasury yields fell. The moderate PPI data confirmed the trend of gradually easing inflation, alleviating investors’ fears that the Federal Reserve would resume raising rates. Corporate cost pressures were further relieved as wholesale prices cooled, and earnings expectations were revised upward.

Overall, this PPI data was equivalent to giving both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks a “reassurance pill.” In the short term, both markets will enter a valuation recovery window driven by easing interest-rate expectations, but the next round of inflation data in late August and early September could still become a key variable that changes the current easing narrative.$BTC #股票交易分享挑战