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#JulyCPIInLineAsInflationCools 🔥 #USJulyCPIInLine — The Fed’s September Decision Just Got More Interesting
Wall Street wanted a reason to breathe.
July CPI delivered one. 👀
🇺🇸 U.S. July CPI
• Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY
• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY
• Monthly headline: +0.1%
• Monthly core: +0.2%
The immediate reaction was constructive:
📈 Stocks pushed higher
📉 Treasury yields eased
💚 Risk sentiment improved
Why?
Because the inflation data reduced the pressure for another immediate tightening move.
And now the real battle begins:
🏦 SEPTEMBER: HIKE OR HOLD?
Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch pricing showed roughly:
🔴 42% — 25 bps HIKE
🟢 55%+ — HOLD
That shift matters.
A lower probability of another rate hike could give BTC, stocks and other risk assets more room to breathe.
But don’t celebrate too early. ⚠️
Core inflation at 2.5% is still above the Fed’s 2% target.
And between now and September, markets will get more:
📊 Inflation data
👷 Employment data
💰 Economic activity data
One CPI report can change expectations.
The bigger signal will be whether the cooling trend continues.
My current view:
🟢 HOLD has the edge.
But the Fed still has the final word.
If upcoming data confirms softer inflation + a cooling labor market, the September narrative could shift even further toward easier policy.
And that could become a major catalyst for risk assets. 🚀
So I’m asking the market:
🔥 SEPTEMBER — HIKE or HOLD?
Drop your call below 👇
#USJulyCPIInLine
#JulyCPIInLineAsInflationCools
July U.S. CPI delivered almost exactly what markets were expecting.
Headline inflation came in at 3.4% YoY, while core CPI eased to 2.5% YoY. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased just 0.1%, with core CPI rising 0.2%.
The immediate market reaction was constructive: stocks moved higher, Treasury yields eased, and risk sentiment improved as the report reduced pressure for an immediate Fed rate hike.
The bigger story is the September Fed decision.
Following the CPI release, CME FedWatch pricing showed the probability of a September 25-basis-point hike falling to around 42%, while the probability of leaving rates unchanged moved above 55%.
But this is not a clear victory over inflation yet.
Core inflation at 2.5% remains above the Fed’s 2% target, meaning policymakers still have reasons to remain cautious. The Fed will also receive additional inflation, employment and economic data before the September meeting, so today’s probabilities can change quickly.
My take: HOLD currently has the edge over HIKE.
The CPI report removes some pressure for immediate tightening, but one report is not enough to declare the inflation battle finished.
For BTC, stocks and other risk assets, a lower probability of a September hike can be supportive because it reduces near-term tightening fears. The next key question is whether upcoming economic data confirms this cooling trend.
👀 September: HIKE or HOLD?
Drop your call below.
@Gate_Square @GateSquare #StockTradingShareChallenge