‍#我的七夕交易分享 Why hasn’t the market risen after all bullish catalysts have been fully priced in?

The biggest market controversy today, and the core issue confusing all investors: macro bullish factors are fully in place, yet the crypto market is completely insensitive.

U.S. CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, continuing to decline from 3.5% in June. The data fully matched market expectations, confirming that inflation is cooling. Boosted by this positive development, the Nasdaq rose 0.54%, while AI chip and cloud computing stocks surged across the board, driving risk assets in U.S. equities higher across the board. But the crypto market remained “completely unmoved” throughout: BTC briefly jumped 0.3% after the data was released before quickly retreating, while ETH also struggled to sustain its rise, fully decoupling from U.S. equities and entering a weak trend.

There is only one core truth: all bullish catalysts had already been priced in by the market.

Expectations for cooling inflation had already been fully digested during the previous market movement, leaving no new buying pressure once the data was released. Meanwhile, the market is in a typical vacuum period after bad news has been exhausted but before positive catalysts arrive: CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September sharply dropped from 30% to 60%, significantly reducing tightening risks, but the market has yet to form clear expectations for rate cuts, with insufficient incremental logic to support a rebound.

More importantly, gold broke above $4,500 to hit a two-month high. The significant diversion of safe-haven and value-preservation funds further squeezed the upside room for crypto risk assets, leaving the broader market completely without upward momentum.

BTC faces three deadly pressures

Beneath the seemingly uneventful consolidation, three hidden pressures continue to cap Bitcoin’s rebound and are also the core reasons the short-term market is struggling to break through:

1. Geopolitical tensions intensify, continuously cooling risk appetite

Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate. Iranian officials have indicated that they may block the strait until 2029 in retaliation against a U.S. maritime blockade. The crisis in this key global energy corridor directly pushed WTI crude oil to $83.75 per barrel, while global market risk appetite rapidly contracted. Compared with gold, which has stronger safe-haven properties, crypto assets’ risk characteristics have become more pronounced, making them the first assets avoided by capital.

2. Regulatory implementation delayed, uncertainty continues to cause disruption

The vote on the United States’ core crypto legislation, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has been postponed until September. The short-term regulatory policy vacuum has left the market without clear policy guidance. In addition, Hawaii will halt cash-based crypto ATM services in October, creating a trend of “structural tightening” in global regulation and continuing to suppress institutional confidence in entering the market.

3. Institutional selling takes effect, with selling pressure persisting

Leading institution Strategy continues to sell and realize profits. After selling 1,690 BTC last week, it once again raised $653 million through a stock issuance. Its total BTC holdings have now fallen to 840447 BTC. Notably, the institution’s average acquisition price is as high as $75,385, leaving its holdings deeply underwater overall. Continued position reductions and stop-loss selling remain a potential source of pressure, creating long-term downward pressure on the market.

Market summary and outlook

The crypto market on August 13 can be summed up by four key words: decoupling, shrinking volume, shakeout, and consolidation. Macro bullish factors have been realized but failed to lift the market, while geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainty, and institutional selling pressure are weighing on BTC. ETH is consolidating weakly under the influence of ETF outflows, a technical breakdown, and cautious capital, but its on-chain fundamentals continue to improve, with a solid bottom in the medium to long term.

In the short term, market liquidity has yet to return, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue. Do not chase longs before a key resistance level is broken, and do not blindly turn bearish before core support is breached. The more painful the consolidation and shakeout, the more期待-worthy the subsequent market shift will be. Focus on whether trading volume breaks out and simply follow the trend. $BTC