#股票交易分享挑战

US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with market expectations

US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with the forecast of 3.4% and down from the previous reading of 3.5%. US July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, in line with the forecast of 0.1%, compared with a previous decline of 0.4%.

US July core CPI, unadjusted, rose 2.5% year-on-year, versus expectations of 2.50% and a previous reading of 2.60%. It rose 0.2% month-on-month, versus expectations of 0.20% and a previous reading of 0.00%.

Core CPI at its lowest level since March 2021

The latest US 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.2 basis points to 4.661%.

After the release of the US July CPI data, traders slightly reduced their bets on a September Fed rate hike, with the latest probability at 45%, down from 47% before the release.

Xiao Caishen believes that, for now, the fact that the data contained no bearish surprises is the biggest bullish factor. As long as August CPI also remains stable, the Fed will most likely keep interest rates unchanged in September, which would be bullish for Bitcoin, gold, and US stocks, but bearish for the US dollar.

Bitcoin:

After the news was released, Bitcoin briefly surged before quickly falling. It dropped nearly 800 points overnight and is currently at 63377.

For Bitcoin, in the absence of major changes in the data to provide a stimulus, the market remains range-bound. Xiao Caishen still believes that this consolidation is a bottoming process that may last several months.

Short-term investors: Try going long at the current price, take profit near 65000, and set a stop-loss below 62000

Long-term investors: Buy the dip and build positions near 63000, with a stop-loss below 60000

Key support: 62200

Key resistance: 65000

Gold:

After the news was released, gold continued to surge. It pulled back after reaching 4500 points this morning and is currently around 4466.

As the leader of this round of risk-asset rebound, gold is currently only suitable for buying on dips. As the saying goes, do not fight the trend.

Short-term investors: Try going long at the current price, with a stop-loss below 4390 and take profit at 4600

Long-term investors: Do not chase longs at the current price; patiently wait for opportunities to short at higher levels

Key support: 4350

Key resistance: 4510

US stocks:

After the news was released, US stocks opened higher but fell back. The Dow Jones closed slightly lower while the Nasdaq closed higher. Memory stocks opened higher and continued rising, with SK Hynix and Micron both gaining more than 7%. SanDisk rose 7.16%, Western Digital rose 6.63%, Seagate Technology rose 7.60%, and Kioxia ADR rose 7.82%.

US stocks are still expected to trade within a range, as the focus of this round of market action remains on gold. After the sharp rises and falls earlier, US stocks need a period of consolidation, so US technology stocks can be traded in swings.

Short-term investors: Trade AI technology stocks in swings, short at high levels and go long at low levels. Taking SanDisk as an example, one can short at high levels and go long at low levels near 1100--1500.

Long-term investors: Build positions in high-quality blue-chip stocks in energy, healthcare, finance, and other sectors that lagged in the previous rally, betting on a catch-up rally

Key Nasdaq support: 26400

Key Nasdaq resistance: 27000

Key Dow Jones support: 53500

Key Dow Jones resistance: 54500

What do you think of the market action after the CPI release? Will interest rates remain unchanged in September? Leave a comment and chat with Xiao Caishen! $BTC $SKHYV $MU