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#NFPShockSpikesRateCutOdds
Employment indicators for July were truly very bad. 23,000 jobs were lost, but that’s still far less than people expected.. Even worse, the data for the previous months also turned out to be lower than we thought. The number of people who are employed or looking for work is now at a level we haven’t seen since 1976. That triggered a sharp move in the markets. The probability of a rate hike in September fell from 58% to 44%.. The price of gold rose by 3% to $4,368.
The labor market is not performing as well as we thought. Bad employment news and the fact that not that many people are working or looking for work are changing our view of the labor market. That doesn’t mean everything is falling apart. The situation is not good. Markets are trying to figure out whether they should raise interest rates again.
Right after the employment data came out, markets started moving. The probability of a rate hike in September quickly declined. Gold got more expensive because people believe interest rates may rise slightly. When employment indicators are bad, that means interest rates may rise slightly, and that’s good for gold.
Now we’re waiting for the inflation data. If inflation is not as high as we thought, it will make us think that interest rates may rise slightly.. If inflation is higher than we thought, that could mean interest rates may be raised again, and that would be bad for gold. So the next inflation data is really important.
Employment indicators for July were truly very bad. This changed our thinking about rate hikes. The fact that not many people are working or looking for work makes the labor market look weaker than we thought. The next inflation data will show whether this continues. Until then, it seems like interest rates could rise slightly, and the markets are still trying to understand what bad employment data means.
Here’s what I think about the employment data and the market reaction. This is not a forecast and not a recommendation.
#NFPShock #RateCutOdds #Gold
#我的七夕交易分享
@Gate_Square
@Gate 广场
$BTC
The jobs numbers for July were really bad. 23,000 Jobs were lost, but that is still a lot less than people thought.. To make things worse the numbers for earlier months were also lower than we thought. The number of people working or looking for work is now at a level we have not seen since 1976. This made the markets move fast. The chance of interest rates going up in September went down from 58% to 44%.. The price of gold went up by 3% to $4,368.
The jobs market is not doing as well as we thought. The bad news about jobs and the fact that not many people are working or looking for work is changing what we think about the labor market. This does not mean that everything is falling apart. It is not good. The markets are trying to figure out if interest rates should go up again.
Soon as the jobs numbers came out the markets started to move. The chance of interest rates going up in September went down fast. Gold went up because people think interest rates might not go up much. When jobs numbers are bad it means interest rates might not go up much and that is good for gold.
Now we are waiting for the numbers about inflation. If inflation is not as high as we thought it will make us think that interest rates might not go up much.. If inflation is higher than we thought it could mean that interest rates might go up again and that would be bad for gold. So the next inflation numbers are really important.
The jobs numbers, for July were really bad. It changed what we think about interest rates going up. The fact that not many people are working or looking for work is making the jobs market look weaker than we thought. The next inflation numbers will tell us if this is going to keep happening. Until then it looks like interest rates might not go up much and the markets are still trying to figure out what the bad jobs numbers mean.
This is what I think about the jobs numbers and how the markets reacted. It is not a prediction or a suggestion.
#NFPShock #RateCutOdds #Gold