#GoldBreaks4400USD Gold Surpasses $4,400: Dynamics Behind the Rise and Ahead Risks

Gold prices have reached the $4,400 level again after two months, gaining over 7% since the beginning of August. XAUUSD is currently trading around $4,376, while XAUT (Tether Gold) is at $4,359. This rise was triggered by weak non-farm payroll data and decreasing expectations of interest rate hikes.
Key Factors Behind the Rise
1. Weak Employment Data and Interest Rate Expectations
Last week's non-farm payroll data fell below expectations, raising questions about whether the Fed will continue raising interest rates. The decrease in expectations of interest rate hikes has made gold, which does not offer yield, more attractive.
2. Record Purchases by the People's Bank of China (PBoC)
The PBoC purchased 640,000 ounces (approximately 19.9 tons) of gold in July, marking its highest monthly purchase in this cycle. This marks the 21st consecutive month of increased gold reserves in China. Central bank purchases demonstrate the institutional and strategic dimension of demand for gold.
3. Geopolitical Risks and Dollar Weakness
Tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have increased demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, recent weakness in the dollar index has supported the upward trend in the price of gold in dollar terms.
Technical Outlook
XAUUSD (Gold):
• Current price: $4,376
• Intraday high: $4,378 - Low: $4,368
• MA5: 4,166 - MA10: 4,159 - MA30: 4,572
The price is trading well above the short-term moving averages (MA5 and MA10). However, the fact that MA30 (4,572) is still above indicates that the long-term trend has not fully reversed. The MACD indicator is still in the negative zone (-20.49), and although the difference between DIF and DEA has started to narrow, a full technical confirmation of the uptrend can be expected when the MACD moves into the positive zone.
XAUT (Tether Gold):
• Current price: $4,359
• 24-hour range: $4,340 - $4,411
XAUT, as a product providing digital access to physical gold, moves in parallel with the price of gold. A 9.5% increase in Tether Gold reserves (612,823 XAUT) indicates increased demand for the asset.
Expert Opinions and Upcoming Catalysts
While some analysts believe gold has bottomed out at current levels, overbought conditions and upcoming data releases could increase volatility in the near term.
1. Near-Term Risk: Wednesday's Inflation Data
The upcoming inflation data is critical for the direction of gold. A higher-than-expected figure could revive concerns about interest rate hikes, putting pressure on gold. A lower figure, however, could support an upward move.
2. Overbought Conditions
The rapid rise increases the likelihood of a correction or profit-taking in the short term. Holding above 4,400 is particularly important for establishing this level as support.
3. Geopolitical Developments
Tensions with Iran and news flow regarding the Strait of Hormuz will continue to affect safe-haven demand.
Critical Levels 🔎
Resistances: 4,400 (psychological), 4,572 (MA30), 4,650 (previous peak area)
Supports: 4,340 (recent low), 4,166 (MA5), 4,000 (psychological)
Gold reached a two-month high, driven by weak US data, record Chinese buying, and geopolitical risks. Whether the rally will continue depends on Wednesday's inflation data and geopolitical developments. Overbought conditions and the MA30 still being higher indicate a risk of a correction in the short term.
This post is not investment advice; it is for informational purposes only regarding market conditions.