#我的七夕交易分享 U.S. stocks and gold are both rising, but Bitcoin is absent from the rebound—is a bottom signal emerging?

After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126k last October, Bitcoin has remained stuck in a correction and has been slow to regain its uptrend. Recently, traditional assets such as U.S. stocks and gold have led the recovery, with market risk appetite gradually improving, but Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways without beginning a rebound in tandem.

ETF inflows have now resumed, and some long-term indicators have begun reaching historical lows. Why has Bitcoin not yet started to recover? Is the current correction already approaching a cyclical bottom?

Why are U.S. stocks and gold rising together while Bitcoin falls behind?

After the sharp volatility and rapid correction in the U.S. stock market in late July, funds flowed back into risk assets, and U.S. stocks quickly began to rebound. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes both recovered most of their previous losses and hit record highs this week. Technology stocks were the core drivers of this rebound, with semiconductor and AI-related sectors surging across the board and significantly boosting market sentiment. Meanwhile, precious metals regained favor among investors. Spot gold has risen for several consecutive days recently, briefly breaking above $4,400 per ounce to reach a nearly two-month high. Silver prices also climbed, with spot silver briefly moving above $66 per ounce and reaching a nearly seven-week high. Bitcoin, however, did not recover in tandem. Bitcoin had also performed weakly while risk assets were under pressure, and even after U.S. stocks and gold strengthened again, it continued to trade independently within a range.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has traded sideways over the past 30 days, fluctuating repeatedly between $62k and $66k. Glassnode noted that over the past 90 days, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 5%, while Bitcoin has fallen 20%; the two have also diverged over the past seven days. Until Bitcoin reestablishes relative strength against U.S. stocks, the market will remain dominated by U.S. stock performance. Although on-chain trading volume has surged and spot ETF inflows have improved significantly, these inflows have not yet effectively translated into price gains.

In terms of on-chain activity, Santiment Intelligence data shows that the number of new BTC wallets created over the past week reached 2.27 million, the highest level in nearly a year. The number of active wallets reached 751k, the highest level in 10 months. However, the key catalyst for this growth in on-chain activity was security concerns triggered by the Coldcard wallet incident. The incident prompted some users to move funds, create new wallets, adjust custody arrangements, and reassess asset security risks, thereby significantly increasing wallet creation and on-chain interactions.

In terms of ETF inflows, SoSoValue data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows on five consecutive trading days during the previous trading week, with cumulative net inflows reaching $854 million—their best weekly performance since April 17. Since August, cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded four times the total for all of July. This reversed the pressure from sustained outflows. From May through July, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of more than $6.59 billion, and the market experienced eight consecutive weeks of fund withdrawals.

However, the recovery in ETF inflows remains insufficient to drive a Bitcoin rebound. Market analysts believe that recent inflows were mainly driven by changes in custody demand and improved expectations for interest-rate cuts following weak employment data. Current buying pressure is insufficient to fully offset the market's continued selling pressure. The Bitcoin market is currently facing sustained selling pressure from miners and crypto digital-asset treasury (DAT) companies. As profit margins narrow, operating costs rise, and demand grows for conversions to AI data centers, some mining companies have begun selling Bitcoin assets to meet cash-flow needs, repay debt, or adjust their business direction.

CryptoQuant data shows that since November 2021, the BTC balance held by miner-linked over-the-counter trading addresses has fallen from approximately 500k BTC to 139.7k BTC, a decline of nearly 72%. Meanwhile, crypto DAT companies have also begun adjusting their Bitcoin-holding strategies by selling some assets to replenish liquidity, buy back shares, or return capital to shareholders; some have even liquidated their holdings to survive.

For example, Strategy has sold a cumulative 6,948 BTC since late June, generating approximately $432 million in cash. In addition, buying power in the U.S. spot market remains weak. CoinGlass data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 80 consecutive days—from May 19 to the present—with the latest reading at -0.0868%, marking the longest negative-premium period on record and twice the previous record of 40 days.

Historical data shows that a persistently negative Coinbase premium generally indicates weak buying demand from U.S. investors or relatively strong selling pressure in the market.

Bottom-fishing signals have emerged in some areas, but the cyclical bottom remains unconfirmed

Historically, after Bitcoin forms a cyclical top, it usually takes approximately 12 to 13 months to reach a final bottom. If this cycle follows the historical pattern, the market's cyclical low may not arrive until the fourth quarter of 2026.

Is Bitcoin showing bottom-fishing signals now?

The bottom-fishing indicator checklist tracked by PAData, a crypto market data and cycle-indicator platform under PANews, shows that Bitcoin has currently displayed only some bottoming signals. The indicators cover multiple data sources, including CryptoQuant, CoinGlass, Alternative.me, DeFiLlama, Dune, and growthepie. “Distance to hit line” measures the distance between the current indicator reading and its historical bottom-fishing threshold; the closer the value is to 0, the closer the indicator is to triggering a historical bottom-fishing signal. Of the 12 core bottom-fishing indicators, four have currently entered their trigger ranges: Reserve Risk (long-term holders), BTC price/2-year moving average, AHR999 (long-term dollar-cost averaging), and EVM sample-chain active diffusion breadth. Among them, Reserve Risk has fallen to 0.00108, the BTC price/2-year moving average indicator has fallen to 0.73x, AHR999 has reached 0.345, and EVM sample-chain active diffusion breadth has fallen to 0. These indicators mainly reflect long-term holder confidence, Bitcoin's position in the price cycle, and activity in the on-chain ecosystem. They have now entered historical stress zones, meaning that Bitcoin's current price is significantly discounted relative to its long-term trend and that its long-term allocation value is increasing.

However, an indicator entering a stress zone does not mean the market has already bottomed. Historical cycles show that Bitcoin bottoms are usually not triggered by a single indicator but emerge after multiple dimensions simultaneously reach extreme levels. At present, based on indicators covering valuation, market sentiment, fund liquidity, and on-chain profitability, the market remains some distance from a historically extreme bottom.

In terms of valuation, the MVRV Ratio (on-chain valuation) is currently 1.212 and has not yet fallen below the historical undervaluation line of 1. MVRV assesses the overall profitability of the market by comparing Bitcoin's market value with its realized value.

Historical data shows that when this indicator falls below 1, it generally means the market has entered a deep correction phase, often corresponding to an accumulation zone in the later stages of a bear market. In terms of on-chain profitability, NUPL is currently 0.175 and has not yet turned negative. This indicator measures the market's net unrealized profit and loss; when NUPL falls below 0, it means holders across the network are collectively in a loss position. Meanwhile, the miner revenue indicator, the Puell Multiple, is currently 0.755, still above the historical stress zone below 0.5. Historical data shows that major macro bottoms have occurred when the Puell Multiple fell below 0.5. In terms of market sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index is currently 29, indicating that the market is already in fear, but it remains some distance from extreme fear. This shows that investors' risk appetite is declining, but the large-scale panic selling commonly seen during cyclical bottoming phases has not yet emerged.

In terms of supply structure, the percentage of supply in profit remains at 53.12%, meaning that more than half of the Bitcoin supply is still profitable. During historical bottoming phases, this indicator usually falls below 5%, and the market generally needs to undergo more complete loss realization and coin redistribution. In terms of liquidity, the stablecoin liquidity impulse is currently -0.74%, indicating some contraction in the stablecoin funding environment. Historical observations show that when this indicator falls below -2%, it generally corresponds to a significant decline in the supply of fiat-backed stablecoins over a 30-day period, with liquidity pressure intensifying. The indicator remains some distance from the extreme contraction zone.

In addition, some on-chain ecosystem indicators have not shown comprehensive bottoming signals. DeFi fundamental diffusion breadth is currently 38.55%, still above the deep contraction zone of 0–25%. This indicator measures the diffusion of DeFi operating activity; entering a low range generally means that industry activity is broadly contracting. The cross-chain MEME risk appetite index is 32.66, above the trigger boundary of the cooling zone at 0–20, indicating that although market risk appetite has declined significantly, capital has not yet entered an extremely dormant state.

Overall, Bitcoin has now shown some market-bottom signals, but the market still lacks sufficient confirmation of a cyclical reversal. Whether Bitcoin can begin a recovery will depend on the sustainability of fund inflows, the release of selling pressure, and further changes in key on-chain indicators.$BTC ‌