July 11, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is in a critical technical position: the short-term rebound momentum is still relatively decent, but it is facing key resistance, and the overall larger downtrend has not reversed.

The core of the current market battle centers on whether price can hold above or loses the $1,800 area.

📊 Market Snapshot

· Price action: Temporarily trading around $1,793, up about 1-3% over the past 24 hours. It briefly spiked to $1,812 yesterday; compared with the June end low of $1,554, it has rebounded by about 16%.
· Market sentiment: Funding rates are extremely low, and both sides in the derivatives market are fairly cautious. However, Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $70.48 million yesterday, the highest in nearly four weeks, providing some buy-side support.

📈 Key Outlook for Today

· First resistance ($1,800-$1,850): Price is trying to challenge the resistance band formed by the 50-day moving average (around $1,801) and prior local highs. Only if it can break through with strong volume and close above $1,850 on the daily chart would there be a chance for the short-term push higher to continue.
· Can support hold ($1,700-$1,717): Current price is holding above the 20-day moving average ($1,717), and the short-term structure is more bullish. As long as it does not break down, the rebound structure is still intact.
· Still a rebound, not a reversal: The 200-day moving average ($2,242) is far above the current price, and the long-term trend remains bearish. Also, the rebound in recent days has come with slight capital outflows, so the main push momentum is insufficient.

💡 Reference Trading Ideas

· If you want to be稳健: Focus on staying on the sidelines and wait for confirmation of direction. Watch how price behaves around $1,800, wait for a breakout with volume, or consider after it retests and stabilizes around the key support level.
· If you want to trade the short-term (high risk):
· Bullish bias: If price pulls back into the $1,730-$1,750 support zone and does not break below it, you can test with a small position. Stop loss must be set strictly below $1,700. Upside targets look at $1,800 and $1,850.
· Bearish bias: If price is clearly rejected and falls back while in the $1,820-$1,850 range, you can consider a light short position. Stop loss should be set above $1,860, and the target is around $1,730.

⚠️ Risk warning: Current price is at a “no gain without risk” turning point—please make sure to control position sizing and set stop losses. The crypto market is extremely volatile; the above analysis does not constitute investment advice—please bear the risks yourself.#以太坊