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The essence of the rapid decline and slow rebound: futures driving the rise, spot market unable to keep up
The recent surge to $80k was not driven by spot demand; it was mainly passive buying caused by short covering in the derivatives market, a typical deleveraging trend.
Core data reveals vulnerabilities: net active trading volume dropped to about -$800 million within 24 hours, the lowest since April 2; the 30-day cumulative funding rate fell to -7%, reaching an extreme historical level; Coinb premium turned negative; Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows, with short-term holder cost basis rapidly dropping near $78,000, approaching a death cross with the “true market average price.” Many analysts point out that after breaking $79,500, the price formed a bear flag pattern, indicating the market is in a highly fragile “all positive news exhausted” scenario.