Why persevere in long-termism? Take a simple example.

Try to judge the probability of tomorrow being a rise or fall, how likely is it to be correct?
50%, both rise and fall are possible. If you go long or short-term in contracts, it's very easy to lose money.
Judging whether it will rise or fall next year, and based on the cycle, the conclusion is that it will rise with a correct probability of 99%. So, buying this year and selling next year seems like an easy way to make money, but unfortunately 80% of people don't have this patience, thus achieving the 20%.
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