Ethereum Evening Outlook: 10.20

$ETH If ETH cannot reclaim and hold above 2430, the decline won’t stop. If a pullback breaks below 2380, an hourly M-top will be confirmed and the decline will deepen; the 2333-2315 zone may not hold.

The direct 1:1 Fibonacci retracement target is 2281. A false break below support in the 2333-2315 zone, followed by a new low and then a reclaim of that zone, could leave the next direction to be determined.

I think ETH may move this way, but this scenario depends on ETH failing to reclaim and hold above 2430. If it reclaims and holds above 2430, the scenario I described is invalidated.

If you’re looking to go long on ETH, keep an eye on 2333-2315 and see whether this zone gives you enough confidence to enter. If it doesn’t, hold off on going long for now.

Consider entering long after a volume-backed breakout above 2406, and entering short after a volume-backed breakdown below 2380. Watch for changes in volume and use stop-losses.

If ETH holds above 2406 on the hourly chart, look toward 2450-2476.
If it breaks below 2380 on the 4-hour chart, look toward 2333-2315.

On the daily chart, as long as ETH doesn’t break below 2357, it may repeat the move indicated by the red arrow on the left. After breaking below 2572, that move went through 28 days of consolidation before starting to rally.

Hopefully ETH can repeat that move without breaking below 2357, consolidating for 28 days before rallying. ETH has already been consolidating between 2357-2572 for 12 days; let’s see whether it breaks below 2357 in the next 16 days!

If ETH doesn’t break below 2357 in the next 16 days, there’s still hope on the daily chart. If it breaks below 2357, the daily downtrend will continue. That’s all!

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