A Brief Analysis of BTC’s Short-Term Trend Using the Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC

1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour timeframe): The main downtrend that began from the historical high of 74,462 on May 28 is still ongoing. The price fell from 74,462 through the secondary high of 67,255 on June 15, down to the low of 57,721 on July 1, for a cumulative decline of 16,741. After the low on July 1, bulls展开 an ABC rebound (A-wave 64,597 → B-wave 61,471 → C-wave 64,660). After the C-wave ended, the price dropped back to the July 13 low of 61,751. A V-shaped reversal appeared on July 14-15, with the price surging to 65,510 (a new high since July). However, on July 16-17 there were consecutive sharp declines, with the price crashing from 65,510 to 62,463 at 13:00 on July 17, fully giving back all the gains from July 14-15.
From July 18-21, bulls regained strength. The price rose from 62,463 all the way to the July 21 14:00 high of 66,916, setting a new high since July 17. From July 22-24 there was a pullback, falling from 66,916 to 63,670 at 14:15 on July 24, a pullback of about 3,246. From July 25-27, the price traded in a range of 64,000-65,500, and during the day on July 27 it briefly pushed up to 65,655 (7-27 13:45), but then it quickly fell again. On July 28 there was a crash; the price dropped from 65,655 to 62,712 at 13:45 on July 28, a one-day drop of about 2,943, setting a new low since July 17.
From July 29-30 there was a strong rebound. The price rose from the July 28 13:45 low of 62,712 to the July 29 14:00 high of 64,650, rebounding by about 1,938, but then fell back to the July 29 21:00 low of 63,206. On July 30, bulls regained strength again, pushing the price from 63,206 up to the 13:45 high of 65,114, a rebound of about 1,908 that fully recovered the decline from July 29. The current price 64,708 is below the 65,000 round-number level, and the market is in a tug-of-war over a key resistance zone. The main trend may be transitioning from deep decline into a stabilization-and-rebound phase after bottom building. The high-volume breakout above 64,500 on July 30 is a key positive signal.

Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the low at 62,712 on July 28 13:45, the short-term trend shows a strong “V-shaped reversal after a dump” characteristic. The short-term lows shifted downward from 66,916 (7-21 14:00) to 63,670 (7-24 14:15) → 62,712 (7-28 13:45). But the low on July 29 at 63,206 was higher than 62,712; the low on July 30 at 63,482 was higher than 63,206, showing a strong “lows continue to step up” pattern. The short-term highs moved down from 66,916 to 65,757 (7-24 07:15) → 65,655 (7-27 13:45) → 65,114 (7-30 13:45). The highs are still trending lower, but the magnitude of the decline has clearly narrowed. In the late session on July 30, the price pulled back from 65,114 to 64,708, with a pullback of only 406, which is normal consolidation after the breakout.

Dow Theory conclusion: The main trend may be turning. The high-volume breakout on July 30 above 64,500 is a key positive signal. The short-term trend has entered a strong rebound phase. 63,500-64,000 is the core short-term support, while 65,000-65,500 is the key short-term resistance zone. If the price can hold above 65,000 and break 65,500, it opens upside room of 66,000-67,000; if it loses 63,500, the rebound may be over and the market may revert to a 62,500-61,750 correction.

2. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:

Bottom fractal: On July 28 13:45, at 62,712, a strong bottom fractal formed, followed by a sustained rebound. On July 29, the bottom fractal shifted up to 63,206. On July 30, the bottom fractal shifted up further to 63,482, showing a strong “bottom fractals continue to rise,” indicating that bullish follow-through is extremely strong.

Top fractal: On July 21 14:00, at 66,916, a strong top fractal formed, followed by a pullback of 3,246. On July 24 07:15, at 65,757, a secondary top fractal formed. On July 27 13:45, at 65,655, a new top fractal formed, followed by a pullback of 2,943 (lowest 62,712). On July 29 14:00, at 64,650, a new top fractal formed, but the subsequent pullback was only 1,444 (lowest 63,206), showing that bearish power has clearly weakened. On July 30 13:45, at 65,114, a new top fractal formed, but the subsequent pullback was only 406 (lowest 64,708), showing that bullish follow-through is extremely strong.

Bi (strokes) and segments:

From the 66,916 top fractal (7-21) to the 63,670 bottom fractal (7-24), it forms a downward stroke, with a decline of about 3,246, indicating strong momentum.

From the 63,670 bottom fractal to the 65,655 top fractal (7-27), it forms an upward stroke, with a rise of about 1,985, indicating medium strength.

From the 65,655 top fractal to the 62,712 bottom fractal (7-28), it forms a downward stroke, with a decline of about 2,943, indicating extremely strong momentum.

From the 62,712 bottom fractal to the 64,650 top fractal (7-29), it forms an upward stroke, with a rise of about 1,938, indicating moderately strong momentum.

From the 64,650 top fractal to the 63,206 bottom fractal (7-29), it forms a downward stroke, with a decline of about 1,444, indicating moderate strength.

From the 63,206 bottom fractal to the 65,114 top fractal (7-30), it forms an upward stroke, with a rise of about 1,908, indicating moderately strong momentum.

From the 65,114 top fractal to the 64,708 bottom fractal (7-30), it forms a downward stroke, with a decline of only 406, indicating very weak momentum.

Central zones:

The former downward central zone 62,000-64,500 has been fully broken upward. The price is holding above 64,500 on July 30, and this central zone has become a strong support below.

A new rising central zone is being built in the 64,000-65,500 range. On July 29-30, the K-lines are densely interleaved within this range. The current price 64,708 is slightly above the middle line inside this central zone, indicating a bullish consolidation posture.

A new overhead pressure central zone is forming in the 65,500-66,500 range.

Chan Theory conclusion: The upward stroke has medium-to-strong strength (+1,908) and the downward stroke is extremely weak (-406), showing that bulls fully dominate. The former downward central zone has already been broken upward, and a new rising central zone is being formed. In the short term, focus on whether effective bottom fractal support can form around 64,000-64,500. If it forms, the upward stroke may restart a push toward 65,500. If 64,000 is directly broken down, the rebound may end, with targets at 63,000-62,500.

3. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the swing structure of the 1-hour timeframe, re-dividing the走势 since the May 28 high of 74,462:

A larger-degree five-wave decline (completed):

1st wave: 74,462 → 72,450 (May 28), amplitude about -2,012

2nd wave: 72,450 → 74,223 (May 29), amplitude about +1,773

3rd wave: 74,223 → 59,096 (June 5), amplitude about -15,127 (main impulse wave)

4th wave: 59,096 → 67,255 (June 15), amplitude about +8,159

5th wave: 67,255 → 57,721 (July 1), amplitude about -9,534

ABC rebound correction (has evolved into a more complex structure):

A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), amplitude +6,876

B wave: 64,597 → 61,471 (July 8), amplitude -3,126

C wave: 61,471 → 64,660 (July 10), amplitude +3,189 (C wave ends)

X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,751 (July 13), amplitude -2,909

A new round of upward impulse (under development):

1st wave (new): 61,751 → 65,510 (July 15), amplitude +3,759, with strong momentum

2nd wave pullback: 65,510 → 62,463 (July 17), amplitude -3,047, and the pullback magnitude reaches 81.1%

3rd wave (new): 62,463 → 66,916 (July 21), amplitude +4,453, with extremely strong momentum

4th wave pullback: 66,916 → 62,712 (July 28), amplitude -4,204, and the pullback magnitude reaches 94.4%

5th wave (current): 62,712 → 65,114 (July 30), amplitude +2,402, with moderately strong momentum; the 5th wave is still unfolding

Elliott Wave conclusion: Currently, it may be in the 5th-wave stage of a new upward impulse. The 1st wave’s rise of 3,759 is strong, and the 2nd wave’s pullback of 3,047 (81.1% in amplitude) is indeed deep, but the 3rd wave has already started and is extremely strong (+4,453). The 4th wave pullback of 4,204 (94.4% in amplitude) is also somewhat deep, yet the 5th wave has started (+2,402). If the 5th wave can break above the 3rd wave high of 66,916, it would confirm that the upward 5-wave structure is valid, with targets at 68,000-69,000. If the 5th wave is rejected in the 65,500-66,000 zone and falls back, the upward structure may fail again.

4. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the July 1 crash stage, there were extremely obvious volume expansion characteristics. From July 1-10 during the rebound phase, trading volume expanded moderately. From July 10-13 during the pullback, volume contracted. On July 14-15 there was a high-volume breakout, with positive volume-price coordination. On July 16-17 there was a high-volume crash. From July 18-21 there was a strong rebound with moderately increased volume, indicating that bullish capital entered in an orderly manner. From July 22-24, during the pullback, volume gradually dwindled, showing limited sell pressure. From July 25-27, as prices consolidated in the 64,000-65,500 range, trading volume shrank noticeably. On July 28 there was a high-volume crash, dropping from 65,655 to 62,712; volume expanded significantly, showing that bearish capital exited in concentrated fashion.
On July 29-30 there was a strong rebound, with price rising from 62,712 to 65,114. On the early session of July 29 there was a high-volume rebound to 64,650, but later during the decline, volume shrank again, showing limited sell pressure. On July 30 there was a high-volume push up to 65,114, with trading volume expanding notably, indicating that bullish capital returned. In the late session on July 30, as the price pulled back from 65,114 to 64,708, volume shrank, showing limited sell pressure. Overall, it formed a positive volume-price combination of “high-volume selloff + low-volume rebound pullback + high-volume second push + consolidation on shrinking volume.”

Key volume-price nodes:

On July 13 at 18:00, there was a low-volume stop in the decline (extremely low volume). The stage bottom formed at 61,751.

On July 15 at 12:00, there was a high-volume bullish candle, pushing up from 64,664 to 65,510, confirming that the bulls’ offensive had begun.

On July 21 at 12:00, there was a parabolic high-volume bullish candle, pushing up from 65,200 to 66,916, confirming the start of the 3rd wave.

On July 28 at 13:45, there was a high-volume bearish candle (very large volume); price crashed from 64,500 to 62,712, confirming that bears concentrated their push.

On July 30 at 12:00, there was a high-volume bullish candle (volume clearly expanding), pushing up from 63,800 to 65,114, confirming the start of the 5th wave.

Recent volume-price status: In the late session of July 30, volume shrank notably. Price consolidated narrowly in the 64,500-65,000 range, which is normal digestion after the 5th-wave breakout.

Volume-price conclusion: After the high-volume breakout above 64,500 on July 30, the volume-price coordination has been good. Key observation points: If the price pulls back to 64,000-64,500 and stops declining on shrinking volume, the 5th wave may continue. If price breaks down below 64,000 on expanding volume, the rebound is likely over.

5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile (Volume Distribution): The volume control point (POC) over the recent 26 days (July 5-30) is at 63,978. The current price 64,708 is about 730 above the POC, indicating a premium status above the value area (Above Value).

Current position analysis: Price 64,708 is above the POC 63,978, meaning it is above the value area. The Value Area is 61,981-64,891. The current price is near the upper edge of the Value Area (64,891), indicating that short-term buyers are dominant. The lower edge of the Value Area at 61,981 is a mid-term strong support. 64,500 is short-term support, and 65,500 is short-term resistance.

High volume nodes (HVN):

66,000-66,500: Overhead resistance HVN (July 21 high-volume trading dense area; current strong resistance)

65,000-65,500: Core resistance HVN (July 30 high-volume trading dense area; current strong resistance)

64,000-64,500: Core support HVN (July 29-30 high-volume trading dense area; current strong support)

63,000-63,500: Downside support HVN (July 29 high-volume trading dense area; already turned into support)

62,000-62,500: Extreme support HVN (July 28 high-volume trading dense area)

Delta analysis: During the rebound on July 21, Delta turned sharply positive, confirming that active buying dominated. During the pullback from July 22-28, Delta gradually turned negative. On July 29-30, Delta turned sharply positive again, showing that buying power has returned to dominance. Current Delta MA12 has sharply turned positive from near the zero axis, indicating that buying power fully dominates and sell power has noticeably weakened.

Order flow conclusion: Price is above POC 63,978 and near the upper edge of the Value Area, so short-term buyers are dominant. 65,000 and 65,500 above are two key HVN resistance levels, while 64,000 and 64,500 below are two key HVN support levels. If, in the 64,000-64,500 area, Delta keeps turning positive and price stops declining on shrinking volume, the 5th wave may continue. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 64,000, the rebound is over.

6. Price Action (Price Action)
Support and resistance levels:

Strong resistance: 74,462 (stage high), 67,255 (June 15 high), 66,916 (July 21 high)

Key resistance: 67,500 (psychological level), 66,000 (area where it spiked then pulled back on July 21), 65,500 (July 27 high zone), 65,000 (psychological level)

Key support: 64,500 (July 30 breakout zone), 64,000 (pivot between bulls and bears), 63,482 (July 30 low), 63,206 (July 29 low), 62,712 (July 28 crash low), 62,463 (July 17 crash low), 61,751 (July 13 low)

K-line patterns:

At 18:00 on July 13, a K-line with a long lower wick appeared, forming the “hammer” bottom pattern at 61,751.

At 12:00 on July 15, a large bullish candle appeared, surging from 64,000 to 65,510, forming the “breakout bullish candle” pattern.

At 12:00 on July 21, a large bullish candle appeared, surging from 65,100 to 66,916, forming the “breakout bullish candle” pattern.

At 13:45 on July 28, a large bearish candle appeared, dropping from 65,500 to 62,712, forming the “decapitation guillotine” bearish pattern.

At 14:00 on July 29, a large bullish candle appeared, surging from 62,712 to 64,650, forming the “breakout bullish candle” pattern.

At 12:00 on July 30, a large bullish candle appeared, surging from 63,800 to 65,114, forming the “breakout bullish candle” pattern and confirming that the 5th wave has started.

Trend structure:

Short term: An upward channel since the 62,712 low on July 28 is forming. The lower-track support is around 63,500, and the upper-track resistance is around 65,500.

Medium term: The downtrend line since the May 28 74,462 high was broken upward in mid-July. The price dropped sharply below the trend line on July 28, but on July 30 the price stood back above the trend line, confirming that the breakout is valid.

Price action conclusion: In the short term, price is in the 5th-wave stage of a new upward impulse. 64,000-64,500 is the short-term bullish defense line, and 65,000-65,500 is the pivot between bulls and bears: a breakout opens 66,500-67,500 upside; if 64,000 is lost, price may retrace into 63,000-62,500.

Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory provides signals that the main trend may be turning, and the high-volume breakout above 64,500 on July 30 is the key turning point. Chan Theory shows that the upward stroke has medium-to-strong strength (+1,908) while the downward stroke is extremely weak (-406), meaning bulls fully control the market. Elliott Wave Theory suggests that price may be in the 5th wave stage of a new upward impulse, with the 5th wave already underway (+2,402). The volume-price relationship shows a positive combination of “high-volume push + consolidation on shrinking volume.” Order flow indicates that POC is 63,978, price is in a premium state, and Delta MA12 has turned sharply positive. Price action shows the “breakout bullish candle” pattern, with short-term bulls dominant.

Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price holds above 64,500 and breaks 65,000 on increased volume, you can chase and go long. Targets: 65,500 → 66,000 → 66,500. Stop-loss: 64,000.

Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches the 65,500-66,000 area and top fractals form along with a high-volume selloff, confirming that the 65,500 resistance is effective, you can short. Target: 64,500 → 64,000. Stop-loss: 65,800.

Current status: 64,708 is in the 5th-wave start stage, with short-term bulls dominant. It’s suggested to wait for a pullback to 64,000-64,500 to confirm support before adding longs, or wait for a breakout above 65,500 to confirm that the 5th wave is continuing, and then chase the move.