Elon Musk’s No.1 fanboy Ron Barron: $TSLA saw 10k!


1. Within 10 years, the stock price could rise 4 to 7 times to $1,200-2,200
2. Then rise another 4 to 5 times over the long term
3. All thanks to the humanoid robot Optimus!
The company is building production lines, aiming to ramp up to 1 million units of capacity next year, and in the future also plans to move toward mass production at a scale of 10 million units.
If one unit sells for $30,000, after deducting costs, the per-unit gross margin is about $10k. With 10 million units, that would be $100 billion.
The global stock of humanoid robots is at the 1 billion-unit level. Assuming Tesla’s market share is 20%, it could be “wiped out” by China’s Unitree—at 200–300 million units.
Because the robot replacement cycle is long, and assuming an 8–10 year service life, the steady-state annual gross profit would be roughly $200–300 billion. After maturity, applying a 25–30x P/E ratio would result in a market-cap contribution of about $5–9 trillion.
If using Musk’s most optimistic model, it could directly capture a slice from the TAM of $40 trillion for replacing the global workforce—giving Tesla a big chunk of it!
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ZhongLuTianContractNumber
· 1h ago
Elon Musk’s No.1 superfan Ron Baron: $TSLA saw 10k!
1. Within 10 years, the stock price could rise 4 to 7x to $1,200–2,200
2. Then another 4 to 5x in the long term
3. All thanks to the humanoid robot Optimus!
The company is building production lines, aiming to ramp up to 1 million units of capacity next year; in the future, it also plans to move toward mass production at the 10 million-unit scale.
If one unit sells for $30k, after deducting costs, the gross profit per unit is about $10,000; 10 million units would be $100 billion.
The global stock of humanoid robots is on the order of 1 billion units. If we assume Tesla’s market share is 20% and China’s Unitree overwhelms it, that would be 200–300 million units.
Because robot replacement cycles are long, based on an 8–10 year service life, the steady-state annual gross profit would be roughly $200–300 billion. After maturity, apply a 25–30x P/E ratio → the corresponding market cap contribution is about $5–9 trillion.
If we use Musk’s most optimistic model, it could directly take from the $40 trillion TAM for replacing the world’s workforce and carve out a big chunk for Tesla!
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