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Ahead of the US pre-market last night, I positioned short on BTC at 63,550 and ETH at 1,880, and rode the move to 62,660 and 1,855.
In the midnight session, the shorts that were publicly posted across the whole network at 63,900 and 1,920 also hit perfectly: take-profits at 63,480 and 1,890.
On the chart, 64,000 was tested several times but couldn’t hold; pulling it higher strongly here is unlikely. The resistance overhead at 64,500-65,000 is extremely heavy. On the daily timeframe, it will most likely top out around 66,000. Downside support is then at 62,000-62,500.
In the Middle East, oil prices have cooled slightly, but the unrest hasn’t stopped. The big headline is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 2:00 AM tonight.
The market has been trading the idea of more rate hikes recently. In reality, it will most likely stay unchanged, but Powell’s speech will definitely be hawkish. If they don’t hike but still crank up hawkish sentiment, it achieves the effect of an actual hike—same old playbook.
Expect it to follow through and drop a wave, but don’t count on a one-way waterfall. This round of news has probed the bottom; BTC watch 62,000, and ETH watch 1,820—around here is the bottom.