Under BTC’s extreme weakness, wait for the Fed’s rate guidance!

After BTC dipped to a one-week low and then returned to an even more extremely weak state, it was driven by three factors: a stronger US dollar, expectations of further rate hikes heating up, and a geopolitical standoff. The progress of Middle East negotiations—and the final direction of the dollar and oil prices—will determine whether BTC’s medium-term outlook can turn positive again. More importantly, the next Fed rate decision is a key factor that will shape long-term sentiment. With uncertainty still high, you need to watch both the rate path and the geopolitical “thermometer”; any unexpected change on either side could quickly rewrite BTC’s operating trajectory.

Building on yesterday’s BTC price action: when the price was around 632, we laid in long orders in the 626–629 range. After the evening US stock market opened, BTC moved toward the expected pullback to around 627 and then began a modest consolidation and upward move, continuing until this morning’s Asia session open, when BTC surged strongly above 64. The daily structure also closed above 64. Overall, it’s just one step away from 649—so next we still look for upside; as long as it stays above 64, we can still look toward 67. But if it again breaks below 634, then the market is a different story. #NFT板块单日反弹超8% $BTC