Ceasefire for 48 hours—and it’s already over: Iran’s missiles launch, and oil prices go wild

48 hours.

Just 48 hours.

On July 26, after several days with no further military clashes between the US and Iran, oil prices plunged over three days by 16%. Brent slid from above $100 to $84. Crypto surged on the good news; Bitcoin briefly climbed above $65,600.

Everyone let out a breath.

Then what?

In the early morning of Beijing time on July 29.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles from within Iran, targeting US military bases in Jordan.

The US military said all of them were intercepted.

But that’s not the point.

The point is—this unofficial ceasefire falls apart after 48 hours.

WTI oil prices jumped back up by more than 5%, with the intraday high reaching $83.30.

You think that’s the end?

That same day, two messages came out at the same time.

First: Oman proposed a “50/50 joint management” plan for the Strait of Hormuz—Iran and Oman each control half of the sea lanes, and ships would voluntarily pay fees for passage.

Iran rejected it. Iran said: the sea lanes for ships must be fully controlled by our side.

Second: The US and Iran are nearing the restoration of the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding. The news said that Washington’s approval is still pending.

Missiles are launched while talks are underway.

Fighting while negotiating. Fighting on and off.

This isn’t the first time.

The memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran in June is, in essence, just a temporary arrangement—to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and to set up a negotiation mechanism. None of the nuclear program, regional security, or control rights over the strait were resolved.

The war has already been going for five months.

The US wants to force Iran into compliance with military power—Iran didn’t back down.

The US wants to talk—but none of the core contradictions have been resolved.

They can’t win, can’t reach an agreement, and can’t get out.

For the crypto market, what does this mean?

The geopolitical premium in oil prices won’t easily exit.

If the ceasefire breaks after 48 hours, what about next time—48 hours? 72 hours? Or will it escalate straight away?

Every time there’s an “expectation of a ceasefire,” it’s a false breakout. Every time “missiles launch,” it’s a real rebound.

On Monday, Bitcoin even kept rising on the upside momentum from the news of oil prices plunging—so what happened? It slid all the way down from above $65,600, breaking below $64,000.

The good news has been digested; the bad news is only just beginning.

Now the question is very simple—

In this deadlock of fighting while talking, will it ultimately lead to a ceasefire, or a renewed escalation?

My take: in the short term, a real ceasefire isn’t in sight.

Iran won’t accept the 50/50 plan, and the US can’t give up control rights over the Strait of Hormuz. The memorandum of understanding is just a stalling tactic; the fundamental contradictions haven’t been resolved.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, oil prices won’t truly fall. As long as oil prices don’t truly fall, inflation expectations won’t retreat. As long as inflation expectations don’t retreat, the Fed won’t dare to turn dovish.

Three layers of bad news, linking up step by step.

On the trading side, there’s just one line of advice:

Don’t bet on direction with geopolitics.

You think it’s a dip-buy—maybe it’s catching a falling knife. You think it’s escaping the top—maybe you’re selling right at the start of the rally.

In this market right now, it’s not about technicals, not about fundamentals—it’s about whether the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will press the launch button in the next second. #USD1持币生息最高8% #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC #长鑫开盘跌7.7% $BZ $CL