I think the drop in the US stock AI sector over the past two days isn’t really an industrial logic collapse; it’s valuation being repriced after being overestimated. The impact from Changxin Technology is more about the market lowering the expected monopoly premium for Micron and SK hynix in the future, but what ultimately determines whether AI stocks can stabilize is whether tech giants can prove that sustained capital expenditures can keep turning into revenue and profits.

Bitcoin is currently oscillating between $63k and $65k. In essence, it’s still being suppressed by the US dollar index, interest-rate expectations, and ETF fund flows. To break through $68k, three data points need to move in sync: the US dollar index falling, rate-cut expectations warming up, and spot ETF net inflows continuing. At the same time, stablecoin market value and on-chain activity must also rebound.

My view is: AI is entering a valuation digestion phase, while BTC is waiting for liquidity to return. The real breakout doesn’t rely on sentiment—it relies on capital.