Tonight, the AI narrative faces a life-or-death test—Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon turn in their papers, and only one number can save the day

Do you still have a position in technology stocks?

If you do, don’t sleep tonight.

Google’s earnings comprehensively beat expectations—cloud revenue surged 82%, with $514 billion in outstanding orders—so what happened? The stock fell more than 7%, losing a whole “CATL” day in one day.

Tesla posted revenue of 28.2 billion—an all-time high—so what happened? It dropped 14%.

The market’s logic has completely changed.

Revenue beats expectations? Good news. Capital expenditures beat expectations? Bad news. Both revenue and capital expenditures beat expectations? A crash.

Wall Street now only recognizes one formula: how much you burned and how much you have left—everything else is just talk.

Tonight, Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings after the close. Amazon will follow tomorrow.

These three set of answers will decide one core question: is Google’s disaster an isolated case, or is it the collective death sentence for the entire AI track?

First, Microsoft.

The market expected revenue of $87.67 billion, up 14.7% year over year; earnings per share of $4.22. Azure cloud growth guidance: 39%-40%.

But what really keeps the market up is this number: for full-year 2026, capital expenditures will be $190 billion, up 61% year over year.

Burning more than $40 billion in a single quarter. Microsoft’s last-quarter free cash flow has already fallen to $15.8 billion, from $25.7 billion two quarters ago.

Growth is slowing, but the burn rate is accelerating.

That gap is the biggest risk tonight.

Next, Meta.

Analysts expected revenue of $60.26 billion, up 26.8% year over year; earnings per share of $7.22.

What about capex? Full-year guidance: $125 billion to $145 billion. For Q2 alone, the estimate is $33.7 billion, double year over year.

More terrifying still—Meta’s head of infrastructure just said that the constraints have spread from GPUs to memory, CPU, and storage.

What does that mean?

It means the supply-chain bottlenecks are worsening, and it means capex can only be raised, not pulled back.

Finally, Amazon.

AWS has $244 billion in outstanding orders, up 40% year over year. Over the past 12 months, free cash flow crashed from $25.9 billion to $1.2 billion.

UBS has already cut its target price early, from 333 to 305.

And Amazon plans to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026.

$200 billion—more aggressive than Google.

Google has already used firsthand experience to tell the market—“Good performance” can’t save “bad cash flow.”

Revenue beats expectations? The market claps for you. Profit beats expectations? The market gives you a thumbs-up. But if you dare to increase capex? The market immediately smashes the stock.

The Nasdaq 100 index is already down 10% from its June peak, officially entering a technical pullback. Over 38 trading days, it moved from peak to pullback.

It came faster and hit harder than the one in March.

Because this time, the market is starting to doubt an even more fundamental question:

Can the AI story actually make money?

Tonight, only one number can save the day.

Not how much you beat revenue expectations. Not how much you beat profit expectations.

It’s whether capex guidance does not exceed expectations.

If Microsoft says, “We’ll keep $190 billion unchanged”—the stock rebounds. If Meta says, “We’ll keep $135 billion steady”—the stock holds up. If anyone dares to raise it further—wait to take Google’s second slap.

But what’s the reality?

The reality is: none of these three dares to slow down.

Microsoft is grabbing GPUs. Meta is grabbing data centers. Amazon is grabbing compute power.

Whoever stops will be thrown out of the AI table.

This is the prisoner’s dilemma—knowing that burning money means death, but burning less means dying even faster.

For crypto players:

Tonight’s earnings will be released after the close in the US stock market. In the traditional trading session, you can only stare blankly.

But the exchange has already launched tokenized US stock spot and futures—MSFT, META, AMZN—trade 7×24 hours.

Once the earnings are out, you can react immediately without waiting for the market to open the next day.

Don’t wait like an idiot.

Three takeaways for tonight’s playbook—only three sentences:

First, don’t bet on the direction of the earnings report. If any of the three giants blows up, it will drag down the entire tech sector, and in turn suppress risk appetite in the crypto market.

Second, watch capex guidance. Whoever raises it is the next Google. Whoever keeps it steady is the short-term safe haven.

Third, keep cash on hand. If any one of the three “raises capex beyond expectations,” tech stocks could still drop one more leg—that’s the chance to add.

The AI cash-burning war is entering its second phase. In phase one, it’s about who tells the better story. In phase two, it’s about who can burn through the money.

After tonight, the answer will be revealed. #USD1持币生息最高8% #GateCard消费返现最高8% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 $MSFT $METAG $AMZN